Virginia

30-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

47.6%Virginia

52.4%North Carolina

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorth Carolina -1.1

PROJECTED TOTAL152.4

MODEL MONEYLINENorth Carolina -110

North Carolina

24-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreVirginia 76

Projected Total152.4

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 77

Team Comparison

VirginiaMetricNorth Carolina

68.9MMH Power Index65.2

119.0Offensive Efficiency115.5

101.8Defensive Efficiency103.8

17.2Net Efficiency11.7

5.2Strength of Schedule7.6

6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.8

67.6Tempo69.0

55.0%Effective FG%54.6%

16.0%Turnover Rate13.9%

37.4%Offensive Rebound %31.1%

33.2%Free Throw Rate38.1%

11.6Average Margin8.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–65.2), offensive efficiency (119.0–115.5), defensive efficiency (101.8–103.8), net efficiency (17.2–11.7).

North Carolina COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (7.6–5.2), ball security (13.9–16.0), free throw rate (38.1–33.2).

Final

Virginia

66—81

North Carolina

North Carolina by 15 • 65.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

VirginiaTEAM STATNorth Carolina

24-53FG27-56

45.0%FG%48.0%

6-223PT9-16

27.0%3PT%56.0%

12-13FT18-22

92.0%FT%82.0%

21Rebounds35

3Offensive Rebounds11

11Assists13

9Turnovers10

9Steals4

3Blocks1

19Fouls12

Player Box Score

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaac McKneely	G	36	5-12	2-7	5-5	1	4	2	0	17
Dai Dai Ames	G	18	5-6	0-1	2-2	1	0	1	0	12
Jacob Cofie	F	13	3-4	1-2	2-2	3	0	2	0	9
Andrew Rohde	G	34	3-9	2-6	0-0	3	4	2	0	8
Blake Buchanan	F	23	2-5	0-0	1-2	6	1	1	0	5
Elijah Saunders	F	22	1-5	1-4	2-2	1	1	1	0	5
Taine Murray	Guard	23	2-5	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	4
Anthony Robinson	F	17	2-3	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	2	4
Ishan Sharma	F	12	1-3	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	2
TJ Power	F	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	29	5-8	4-6	2-3	11	1	0	1	16
Ian Jackson	G	17	5-7	3-3	3-4	1	0	0	0	16
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	28	6-10	0-0	2-2	6	0	0	0	14
RJ Davis	Guard	33	3-14	0-4	6-7	3	2	1	0	12
Drake Powell	Guard	32	4-6	1-2	2-3	2	2	0	0	11
Seth Trimble	G	23	2-5	0-0	1-1	5	1	1	0	5
Cade Tyson	G	4	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	3
Elliot Cadeau	G	22	0-3	0-0	2-2	1	6	0	0	2
Jalen Washington	C	12	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

65.4Possessions65.4

100.9Offensive Efficiency123.9

123.9Defensive Efficiency100.9

-22.9Net Efficiency22.9

50.9%Effective FG%56.3%

55.8%True Shooting %60.9%

13.8%Turnover Rate15.3%

24.5%Free Throw Rate39.3%

41.5%3-Point Rate28.6%

1.22Assist / Turnover1.30

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 15 points. The game played at approximately 65.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.