South Alabama

21-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

42.9%South Alabama

57.1%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -2.8

PROJECTED TOTAL145.3

MODEL MONEYLINETexas State -133

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 71

Projected Total145.3

Projected ScoreTexas State 74

Team Comparison

South AlabamaMetricTexas State

51.4MMH Power Index49.4

110.3Offensive Efficiency107.7

103.9Defensive Efficiency103.4

6.4Net Efficiency4.3

-3.7Strength of Schedule-4.7

3.4Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

67.4Tempo68.6

53.2%Effective FG%51.3%

12.8%Turnover Rate18.4%

24.9%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

39.8%Free Throw Rate36.0%

4.3Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

South Alabama HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY57.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSouth Alabama holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.4–49.4), offensive efficiency (110.3–107.7), net efficiency (6.4–4.3), strength of schedule (-3.7–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–103.9), recent form (9.1–3.4), offensive rebounding (34.3–24.9).

Final

South Alabama

92—93

Texas State

Texas State by 1 • 68.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

South AlabamaTEAM STATTexas State

30-59FG34-65

51.0%FG%52.0%

12-273PT13-28

44.0%3PT%46.0%

20-23FT12-16

87.0%FT%75.0%

28Rebounds34

9Offensive Rebounds14

16Assists23

9Turnovers9

6Steals6

—Blocks—

15Fouls17

Player Box Score

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Barry Dunning Jr.	G	42	13-20	9-12	11-11	4	3	2	46
Elijah Ormiston	Forward	30	5-10	1-4	1-2	4	2	0	12
Myles Corey	G	37	2-9	0-4	5-6	4	6	2	9
John Broom	G	34	3-3	2-2	0-0	4	2	0	8
Dylan Fasoyiro	Guard	14	3-4	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	6
Cantia Rahming	Forward	15	2-4	0-0	0-0	6	0	1	4
Judah Brown	Forward	14	2-6	0-3	0-0	2	0	0	4
Jayden Cooper	G	29	0-2	0-1	3-4	1	2	0	3
JJ Wheat	G	10	0-1	0-0	0-0	3	1	1	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Tyrel Morgan	Forward	36	8-11	1-3	3-3	3	3	0	20
Coleton Benson	G	22	5-9	5-8	4-5	3	1	0	19
Joshua O'Garro	G	29	4-9	3-4	2-2	9	3	1	13
Tylan Pope	Forward	30	5-9	0-1	1-4	12	0	2	11
Mark Drone	G	26	4-8	1-4	2-2	0	6	0	11
Drue Drinnon	Guard	14	2-4	2-4	0-0	0	1	0	6
Dylan Dawson	Guard	11	2-3	1-2	0-0	0	2	0	5
Kaden Gumbs	G	17	2-4	0-1	0-0	0	4	2	4
Bessanty Saragba	F	12	2-4	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	4
Christian Turner	Forward	18	0-2	0-0	0-0	2	2	1	0
Austin Green	F	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0
Nate Deer	F	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.8Possessions68.8

133.7Offensive Efficiency135.2

135.2Defensive Efficiency133.7

-1.5Net Efficiency1.5

61.0%Effective FG%62.3%

65.8%True Shooting %64.0%

12.9%Turnover Rate13.3%

39.0%Free Throw Rate24.6%

45.8%3-Point Rate43.1%

1.78Assist / Turnover2.56

Game Summary

Texas State won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 68.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.