Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

46.2%Illinois State

53.8%Missouri State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMissouri State -0.6

PROJECTED TOTAL146.9

MODEL MONEYLINEMissouri State -116

Missouri State

16-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 73

Projected Total146.9

Projected ScoreMissouri State 74

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricMissouri State

54.3MMH Power Index51.1

110.6Offensive Efficiency110.5

101.4Defensive Efficiency108.4

9.2Net Efficiency2.1

1.0Strength of Schedule0.5

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.1

67.5Tempo67.9

54.3%Effective FG%51.8%

16.8%Turnover Rate16.4%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %33.0%

32.0%Free Throw Rate42.9%

6.2Average Margin1.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY53.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–51.1), offensive efficiency (110.6–110.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–108.4), net efficiency (9.2–2.1).

Missouri State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-2.1–-4.4), ball security (16.4–16.8), offensive rebounding (33.0–28.3).

Final

Illinois State

70—68

Missouri State

Illinois State by 2 • 64.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATMissouri State

27-52FG22-52

52.0%FG%42.0%

9-283PT7-20

32.0%3PT%35.0%

7-12FT17-22

58.0%FT%77.0%

25Rebounds33

6Offensive Rebounds12

17Assists9

12Turnovers14

5Steals6

3Blocks2

18Fouls16

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dalton Banks	Guard	34	7-11	0-1	2-3	2	8	2	1	16
Johnny Kinziger	G	35	6-14	2-7	0-0	4	0	1	0	14
Jordan Davis	Guard	31	5-6	3-4	0-0	7	2	1	0	13
Chase Walker	F	19	2-2	0-0	3-6	1	5	0	0	7
Caden Boser	Forward	10	2-5	2-5	0-0	1	1	0	0	6
Ty Pence	G	17	2-4	0-2	0-0	3	1	0	0	4
Cameron Barnes	F	10	1-3	0-2	2-2	2	0	0	1	4
Jack Daugherty	F	14	1-3	1-3	0-1	1	0	1	0	3
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	11	1-3	1-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Landon Wolf	G	19	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	1	0

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Vincent Brady II	G	34	3-9	2-5	7-8	4	1	1	0	15
Chase Martin	Guard	27	4-7	0-0	7-9	3	1	1	1	15
Dez White	G	32	5-14	2-8	0-0	2	1	1	1	12
Zaxton King	G	35	3-9	2-5	1-2	2	2	0	0	9
Jalen Hampton	G	17	3-4	0-0	1-2	3	0	1	0	7
Michael Osei-Bonsu	F	35	3-7	0-0	0-0	12	4	1	0	6
Makhai Valentine	G	3	1-1	1-1	1-1	1	0	0	0	4
Wesley Oba	Forward	12	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	0
Logan Epes	G	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.1Possessions64.1

109.2Offensive Efficiency106.1

106.1Defensive Efficiency109.2

3.1Net Efficiency-3.1

60.6%Effective FG%49.0%

60.7%True Shooting %54.4%

18.8%Turnover Rate21.7%

23.1%Free Throw Rate42.3%

53.8%3-Point Rate38.5%

1.42Assist / Turnover0.64

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 64.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.