Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

83.5%Arkansas State

16.5%Louisiana

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -9.8

PROJECTED TOTAL148.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -506

Louisiana

11-22

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total148.3

Projected ScoreLouisiana 69

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricLouisiana

57.7MMH Power Index38.6

113.1Offensive Efficiency99.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency110.2

7.8Net Efficiency-10.9

-1.0Strength of Schedule1.5

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.0

73.3Tempo64.1

52.7%Effective FG%47.1%

19.4%Turnover Rate16.8%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

39.6%Free Throw Rate29.5%

5.8Average Margin-7.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY83.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–38.6), offensive efficiency (113.1–99.3), defensive efficiency (105.3–110.2), net efficiency (7.8–-10.9).

Louisiana COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.5–-1.0), ball security (16.8–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

83—64

Louisiana

Arkansas State by 19 • 76.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATLouisiana

21-57FG22-64

37.0%FG%34.0%

6-243PT3-19

25.0%3PT%16.0%

35-42FT17-23

83.0%FT%74.0%

56Rebounds24

21Offensive Rebounds10

13Assists9

20Turnovers12

4Steals11

7Blocks3

24Fouls25

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Izaiyah Nelson	F	30	9-14	0-0	12-14	21	0	0	2	30
Taryn Todd	Guard	21	2-5	1-2	7-8	5	4	0	2	12
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	24	3-10	0-6	5-8	3	0	1	2	11
Joseph Pinion	G	20	4-6	2-3	0-0	5	0	0	0	10
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	36	1-7	1-4	6-6	4	5	2	0	9
Derrian Ford	G	28	2-8	2-7	2-2	8	1	0	0	8
Rashaud Marshall	F	10	0-1	0-0	2-2	4	0	0	0	2
Kobe Julien	Forward	23	0-6	0-2	1-2	1	3	1	1	1
Avery Felts	Guard	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Louisiana

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil	G	27	6-11	0-0	3-4	2	0	2	0	15
Kentrell Garnett	Guard	34	3-10	0-3	5-5	6	2	2	1	11
Michael Thomas	Guard	28	3-8	1-3	1-2	0	3	2	0	8
Christian Wright	Guard	25	1-10	0-3	5-5	1	2	1	0	7
Kyran Ratliff	F	21	3-4	1-2	0-1	3	0	0	1	7
London Fields	G	20	3-8	1-3	0-0	1	0	1	0	7
Jeremiah Evans	F	11	1-5	0-2	2-3	1	0	1	0	4
Zeke Cook	F	12	1-4	0-0	0-0	2	2	1	1	2
Chancellor White	G	12	1-4	0-3	0-1	4	0	0	0	2
Brandon Hardy	G	10	0-0	0-0	1-2	1	0	1	0	1

Advanced Game Stats

76.5Possessions76.5

108.5Offensive Efficiency83.7

83.7Defensive Efficiency108.5

24.8Net Efficiency-24.8

42.1%Effective FG%36.7%

53.9%True Shooting %42.7%

26.3%Turnover Rate15.6%

73.7%Free Throw Rate35.9%

42.1%3-Point Rate29.7%

0.65Assist / Turnover0.75

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 19 points. The game played at approximately 76.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.