Toledo

19-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

62.4%Toledo

37.6%Buffalo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -1.9

PROJECTED TOTAL159.3

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -166

Buffalo

17-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreToledo 81

Projected Total159.3

Projected ScoreBuffalo 79

Team Comparison

ToledoMetricBuffalo

58.8MMH Power Index49.7

116.0Offensive Efficiency114.9

109.6Defensive Efficiency112.2

6.4Net Efficiency2.7

2.3Strength of Schedule0.0

10.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-5.9

69.8Tempo67.9

55.1%Effective FG%56.1%

14.6%Turnover Rate16.1%

30.4%Offensive Rebound %27.6%

30.3%Free Throw Rate40.4%

4.5Average Margin1.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY62.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–49.7), offensive efficiency (116.0–114.9), defensive efficiency (109.6–112.2), net efficiency (6.4–2.7).

Buffalo COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (56.1–55.1), free throw rate (40.4–30.3).

Final

Toledo

74—87

Buffalo

Buffalo by 13 • 66.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ToledoTEAM STATBuffalo

28-54FG35-56

52.0%FG%63.0%

5-133PT13-23

38.0%3PT%57.0%

13-15FT4-7

87.0%FT%57.0%

22Rebounds29

6Offensive Rebounds7

14Assists18

11Turnovers14

8Steals7

2Blocks5

12Fouls14

Player Box Score

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Javan Simmons	F	32	7-8	0-0	7-7	7	3	2	0	21
Sonny Wilson	G	37	5-10	1-1	5-6	2	4	2	0	16
Sam Lewis	G	33	7-13	1-3	0-0	2	1	1	1	15
Isaiah Adams	Guard	34	4-9	1-3	0-0	4	5	1	1	9
Bryce Ford	G	33	3-7	2-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	8
Seth Hubbard	G	15	2-6	0-3	1-2	2	0	1	0	5
Grgur Brcic	C	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Jaylan Ouwinga	F	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Buffalo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyson Dunn	G	31	10-14	6-9	0-0	0	3	0	0	26
Bryson Wilson	G	17	8-8	3-3	1-1	6	1	1	1	20
Ben Michaels	F	16	6-6	2-2	0-0	4	1	2	1	14
Ryan Sabol	G	34	5-12	2-6	1-2	2	5	2	0	13
Anquan Boldin Jr	G	35	3-7	0-2	1-2	5	1	1	0	7
Noah Batchelor	G	34	1-5	0-1	0-0	5	4	1	0	2
Tim Oboh	C	16	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Frederiks Meinarts	Center	6	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Kavon Bradford	G	11	0-1	0-0	1-2	1	3	0	3	1

Advanced Game Stats

66.2Possessions66.2

111.8Offensive Efficiency131.4

131.4Defensive Efficiency111.8

-19.6Net Efficiency19.6

56.5%Effective FG%74.1%

60.5%True Shooting %73.3%

16.6%Turnover Rate21.1%

27.8%Free Throw Rate12.5%

24.1%3-Point Rate41.1%

1.27Assist / Turnover1.29

Game Summary

Buffalo won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 66.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.