Incarnate Word

12-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

46.5%Incarnate Word

53.5%Northwestern State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthwestern State -1.4

PROJECTED TOTAL141.6

MODEL MONEYLINENorthwestern State -115

Northwestern State

10-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIncarnate Word 70

Projected Total141.6

Projected ScoreNorthwestern State 72

Team Comparison

Incarnate WordMetricNorthwestern State

44.6MMH Power Index41.3

112.0Offensive Efficiency104.0

111.2Defensive Efficiency109.0

0.8Net Efficiency-5.0

-3.6Strength of Schedule-1.6

-8.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.9

66.3Tempo63.6

52.2%Effective FG%49.5%

16.8%Turnover Rate17.6%

34.4%Offensive Rebound %27.1%

34.0%Free Throw Rate41.2%

0.5Average Margin-3.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Incarnate Word HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY53.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIncarnate Word holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (44.6–41.3), offensive efficiency (112.0–104.0), net efficiency (0.8–-5.0), shooting efficiency (52.2–49.5).

Northwestern State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (109.0–111.2), strength of schedule (-1.6–-3.6), recent form (-4.9–-8.5).

Final

Incarnate Word

57—73

Northwestern State

Northwestern State by 16 • 61.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Incarnate WordTEAM STATNorthwestern State

16-45FG26-51

36.0%FG%51.0%

5-123PT9-16

42.0%3PT%56.0%

20-29FT12-14

69.0%FT%86.0%

29Rebounds29

15Offensive Rebounds12

5Assists9

19Turnovers15

6Steals12

3Blocks7

13Fouls20

Player Box Score

Incarnate Word

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Lamin Sabally	F	28	5-6	0-0	5-7	6	0	0	1	15
Dylan Hayman	Forward	36	3-9	0-1	7-8	4	1	0	0	13
Davion Bailey	G	36	4-10	4-8	0-0	1	0	0	0	12
Jayden Williams	C	17	1-3	0-0	4-6	7	0	0	0	6
TJ Ford Jr.	Point Guard	28	1-8	1-2	2-3	1	1	4	0	5
Jordan Pyke	F	22	2-7	0-1	1-1	3	1	1	1	5
Kobi Bowles	Guard	3	0-2	0-0	1-2	0	1	0	0	1
Marcus Glover	F	24	0-0	0-0	0-2	2	0	1	1	0
Harrison Reede	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Mintautas Mockus	Forward	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Amani Drummond	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Northwestern State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Micah Thomas	G	31	7-12	3-3	2-2	2	1	3	0	19
Jon Sanders II	G	25	5-8	4-5	4-4	0	1	0	0	18
Love Bettis	G	26	4-9	0-1	4-4	1	0	5	0	12
Addison Patterson	F	24	3-6	1-3	0-0	5	2	1	0	7
Landyn Jumawan	G	16	2-4	1-2	0-0	2	1	2	0	5
Jerald Colonel	F	26	2-4	0-0	0-0	6	3	0	5	4
JT Warren	Forward	20	2-5	0-1	0-2	3	0	0	1	4
Willie Williams	F	25	1-2	0-0	0-0	4	1	1	1	2
J.C. Riley Jr.	C	1	0-0	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Justin Redmond	G	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Mubiru	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Mitch Williams	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

61.8Possessions61.8

92.2Offensive Efficiency118.1

118.1Defensive Efficiency92.2

-25.9Net Efficiency25.9

41.1%Effective FG%59.8%

48.5%True Shooting %63.3%

30.3%Turnover Rate24.7%

64.4%Free Throw Rate27.5%

26.7%3-Point Rate31.4%

0.26Assist / Turnover0.60

Game Summary

Northwestern State won by 16 points. The game played at approximately 61.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.