Northern Arizona

10-22

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

18.1%Northern Arizona

81.9%Idaho State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIdaho State -10.2

PROJECTED TOTAL151.0

MODEL MONEYLINEIdaho State -452

Idaho State

13-20

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthern Arizona 70

Projected Total151.0

Projected ScoreIdaho State 81

Team Comparison

Northern ArizonaMetricIdaho State

36.9MMH Power Index45.9

107.1Offensive Efficiency111.0

114.8Defensive Efficiency113.4

-7.7Net Efficiency-2.4

-1.8Strength of Schedule0.2

-16.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.6

66.6Tempo67.1

53.5%Effective FG%52.2%

15.8%Turnover Rate16.5%

24.0%Offensive Rebound %33.9%

33.6%Free Throw Rate39.1%

-5.1Average Margin-1.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Idaho State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY81.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIdaho State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (45.9–36.9), offensive efficiency (111.0–107.1), defensive efficiency (113.4–114.8), net efficiency (-2.4–-7.7).

Northern Arizona COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (53.5–52.2), ball security (15.8–16.5).

Final

Northern Arizona

82—79

Idaho State

Northern Arizona by 3 • 65.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Northern ArizonaTEAM STATIdaho State

31-54FG29-63

57.0%FG%46.0%

9-143PT5-24

64.0%3PT%21.0%

11-19FT16-19

58.0%FT%84.0%

27Rebounds34

7Offensive Rebounds13

17Assists10

10Turnovers5

2Steals4

—Blocks5

14Fouls14

Player Box Score

Northern Arizona

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Carson Towt	F	39	11-11	0-0	2-4	12	3	0	24
Trent McLaughlin	Guard	39	7-14	2-3	5-9	1	5	0	21
Jayden Jackson	G	35	6-11	1-2	4-6	3	4	0	17
Ryan Abelman	G	34	3-8	3-5	0-0	3	4	1	9
Dillan Baker	G	28	3-7	2-3	0-0	4	1	0	8
Leigh Rickwood-Pitt	Forward	16	1-2	1-1	0-0	2	0	0	3
Oakland Fort	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0
Monty Bowser	G	4	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Idaho State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dylan Darling	G	39	12-19	4-9	6-7	5	6	0	1	34
Jake O'Neil	Guard	34	5-14	0-4	4-6	7	2	1	0	14
Isaiah Griffin	F	33	4-8	0-0	1-1	4	2	0	0	9
Connor Hollenbeck	F	33	2-7	1-5	2-2	3	0	0	1	7
Evan Otten	F	17	2-3	0-0	2-2	4	0	0	2	6
Jackson Greene	Forward	15	2-2	0-0	1-1	1	0	1	0	5
Blake Daberkow	F	14	2-3	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	1	4
AJ Burgin	Guard	15	0-7	0-6	0-0	3	0	2	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.0Possessions65.0

126.2Offensive Efficiency121.5

121.5Defensive Efficiency126.2

4.6Net Efficiency-4.6

65.7%Effective FG%50.0%

65.1%True Shooting %54.8%

15.1%Turnover Rate7.8%

35.2%Free Throw Rate30.2%

25.9%3-Point Rate38.1%

1.70Assist / Turnover2.00

Game Summary

Northern Arizona won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 65.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, True Shooting %, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.