Florida State

18-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

16.2%Florida State

83.8%Virginia

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -12.5

PROJECTED TOTAL156.7

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -517

Virginia

30-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreFlorida State 72

Projected Total156.7

Projected ScoreVirginia 85

Team Comparison

Florida StateMetricVirginia

58.7MMH Power Index68.9

111.9Offensive Efficiency119.0

108.5Defensive Efficiency101.8

3.4Net Efficiency17.2

5.7Strength of Schedule5.2

7.6Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

71.8Tempo67.6

52.4%Effective FG%55.0%

15.2%Turnover Rate16.0%

30.3%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

35.2%Free Throw Rate33.2%

2.4Average Margin11.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY83.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–58.7), offensive efficiency (119.0–111.9), defensive efficiency (101.8–108.5), net efficiency (17.2–3.4).

Florida State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (5.7–5.2), recent form (7.6–6.4), ball security (15.2–16.0).

Final

Florida State

57—60

Virginia

Virginia by 3 • 59.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Florida StateTEAM STATVirginia

23-62FG21-53

37.0%FG%40.0%

7-223PT11-24

32.0%3PT%46.0%

4-7FT7-9

57.0%FT%78.0%

37Rebounds33

16Offensive Rebounds10

12Assists15

9Turnovers14

7Steals3

9Blocks7

15Fouls12

Player Box Score

Florida State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jamir Watkins	Guard	34	7-18	2-7	2-4	8	5	1	0	18
Alier Maluk	F	21	4-5	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	1	8
Christian Nitu	F	18	4-4	0-0	0-0	3	0	1	0	8
Daquan Davis	G	29	2-11	2-4	0-0	2	3	1	4	6
Justin Thomas	G	29	2-6	1-1	0-1	5	3	2	2	5
Taylor Bol Bowen	F	26	1-5	1-3	2-2	6	0	0	2	5
AJ Swinton	F	6	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Jerry Deng	F	14	1-5	0-4	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
Bostyn Holt	Guard	12	1-5	0-2	0-0	1	1	0	0	2
Chandler Jackson	G	11	0-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	0

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dai Dai Ames	G	38	6-11	3-4	3-4	3	3	1	1	18
Andrew Rohde	G	38	6-15	4-8	1-1	4	3	2	0	17
Elijah Saunders	F	32	4-6	3-4	1-2	5	1	0	1	12
Isaac McKneely	G	36	3-11	1-6	2-2	2	3	0	0	9
Blake Buchanan	F	31	2-5	0-0	0-0	8	4	0	3	4
Jacob Cofie	F	11	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	2	0
Taine Murray	Guard	10	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Anthony Robinson	F	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Ishan Sharma	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

59.8Possessions59.8

95.3Offensive Efficiency100.3

100.3Defensive Efficiency95.3

-5.0Net Efficiency5.0

42.7%Effective FG%50.0%

43.6%True Shooting %52.4%

15.4%Turnover Rate22.8%

11.3%Free Throw Rate17.0%

35.5%3-Point Rate45.3%

1.33Assist / Turnover1.07

Game Summary

Virginia won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 59.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, True Shooting %, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.