Missouri State

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

29.6%Missouri State

70.4%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -7.6

PROJECTED TOTAL146.9

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -238

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMissouri State 70

Projected Total146.9

Projected ScoreIllinois State 77

Team Comparison

Missouri StateMetricIllinois State

51.1MMH Power Index54.3

110.5Offensive Efficiency110.6

108.4Defensive Efficiency101.4

2.1Net Efficiency9.2

0.5Strength of Schedule1.0

-2.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

67.9Tempo67.5

51.8%Effective FG%54.3%

16.4%Turnover Rate16.8%

33.0%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

42.9%Free Throw Rate32.0%

1.4Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–51.1), offensive efficiency (110.6–110.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–108.4), net efficiency (9.2–2.1).

Missouri State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-2.1–-4.4), ball security (16.4–16.8), offensive rebounding (33.0–28.3).

Final

Missouri State

54—70

Illinois State

Illinois State by 16 • 63.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Missouri StateTEAM STATIllinois State

20-58FG26-51

34.0%FG%51.0%

5-193PT10-23

26.0%3PT%43.0%

9-12FT8-13

75.0%FT%62.0%

34Rebounds32

12Offensive Rebounds7

10Assists20

12Turnovers12

6Steals4

4Blocks6

15Fouls15

Player Box Score

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Michael Osei-Bonsu	F	26	5-5	0-0	0-1	6	0	1	1	10
Vincent Brady II	G	25	3-11	2-4	2-2	7	0	0	0	10
Chase Martin	Guard	21	2-12	0-4	3-4	2	2	0	1	7
Wesley Oba	Forward	26	3-4	0-0	0-0	6	2	0	1	6
Mozae Downing-Rivers	G	15	2-6	0-0	2-2	1	2	1	1	6
Dez White	G	33	1-10	1-5	2-2	2	1	2	0	5
Makhai Valentine	G	6	2-2	1-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	5
Zaxton King	G	32	1-5	1-3	0-0	2	3	0	0	3
Logan Epes	G	16	1-3	0-2	0-1	2	0	2	0	2

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	33	4-9	3-5	2-2	6	3	0	1	13
Dalton Banks	Guard	28	5-9	1-4	1-3	3	8	2	1	12
Chase Walker	F	24	4-10	0-1	3-5	9	2	2	1	11
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	21	4-6	3-5	0-1	0	1	0	0	11
Landon Wolf	G	17	3-5	2-4	2-2	1	1	0	0	10
Ty Pence	G	20	4-5	1-1	0-0	3	2	0	0	9
Cameron Barnes	F	13	2-4	0-1	0-0	2	2	0	2	4
Jordan Davis	Guard	23	0-0	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	1	0
Jack Daugherty	F	13	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Caden Boser	Forward	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Cade Norris	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Ty Blake	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.0Possessions63.0

85.7Offensive Efficiency111.1

111.1Defensive Efficiency85.7

-25.4Net Efficiency25.4

38.8%Effective FG%60.8%

42.4%True Shooting %61.2%

18.8%Turnover Rate19.3%

20.7%Free Throw Rate25.5%

32.8%3-Point Rate45.1%

0.83Assist / Turnover1.67

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 16 points. The game played at approximately 63.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.