Lafayette

11-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

18.7%Lafayette

81.3%American University

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAmerican University -11.1

PROJECTED TOTAL145.8

MODEL MONEYLINEAmerican University -435

American University

16-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreLafayette 67

Projected Total145.8

Projected ScoreAmerican University 78

Team Comparison

LafayetteMetricAmerican University

39.6MMH Power Index48.2

102.9Offensive Efficiency110.6

110.3Defensive Efficiency105.8

-7.4Net Efficiency4.8

-1.4Strength of Schedule-4.3

-6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency2.2

67.5Tempo67.5

49.4%Effective FG%52.6%

15.4%Turnover Rate15.7%

25.7%Offensive Rebound %28.0%

33.0%Free Throw Rate30.1%

-5.0Average Margin3.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

American University HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY81.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAmerican University holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.2–39.6), offensive efficiency (110.6–102.9), defensive efficiency (105.8–110.3), net efficiency (4.8–-7.4).

Lafayette COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.4–-4.3), ball security (15.4–15.7), free throw rate (33.0–30.1).

Final

Lafayette

69—71

American University

American University by 2 • 66.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

LafayetteTEAM STATAmerican University

27-53FG25-54

51.0%FG%46.0%

11-263PT10-23

42.0%3PT%43.0%

4-5FT11-16

80.0%FT%69.0%

28Rebounds27

4Offensive Rebounds6

19Assists13

14Turnovers11

5Steals10

5Blocks1

14Fouls10

Player Box Score

Lafayette

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Alex Chaikin	G	40	10-13	8-10	1-1	6	1	0	0	29
Justin Vander Baan	C	39	6-9	0-1	2-2	6	5	0	5	14
Andrew Phillips	G	32	5-12	1-4	1-2	6	0	1	0	12
Caleb Williams	G	33	3-11	2-6	0-0	4	2	0	0	8
Ryan Pettit	G	20	2-3	0-1	0-0	3	4	3	0	4
Luka Savicevic	G	30	1-5	0-4	0-0	2	7	1	0	2
TJ Berger	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Misha Bednostin	C	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

American University

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Greg Jones	F	31	6-12	3-4	2-2	5	2	1	0	17
Lincoln Ball	Guard	24	5-8	1-2	2-4	6	4	1	0	13
Matt Mayock	F	21	4-5	1-2	1-2	1	0	0	0	10
Elijah Stephens	Guard	34	4-8	0-0	0-1	2	5	1	0	8
Colin Smalls	Guard	25	1-4	1-4	4-5	1	0	1	0	7
Geoff Sprouse	G	19	2-6	2-6	0-0	3	0	3	0	6
Matt Rogers	Forward	29	1-4	1-3	2-2	4	2	2	1	5
Wyatt Nausadis	G	6	1-3	1-2	0-0	2	0	1	0	3
Mason Whittaker	Forward	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Eric Michaels	F	6	0-3	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.0Possessions66.0

104.5Offensive Efficiency107.6

107.6Defensive Efficiency104.5

-3.0Net Efficiency3.0

61.3%Effective FG%55.6%

62.3%True Shooting %57.6%

21.4%Turnover Rate16.5%

9.4%Free Throw Rate29.6%

49.1%3-Point Rate42.6%

1.36Assist / Turnover1.18

Game Summary

American University won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 66.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.