Tarleton State

14-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

11.6%Tarleton State

88.4%California Baptist

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCalifornia Baptist -12.9

PROJECTED TOTAL144.6

MODEL MONEYLINECalifornia Baptist -762

California Baptist

25-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTarleton State 66

Projected Total144.6

Projected ScoreCalifornia Baptist 79

Team Comparison

Tarleton StateMetricCalifornia Baptist

44.6MMH Power Index58.3

103.2Offensive Efficiency106.5

101.6Defensive Efficiency99.0

1.6Net Efficiency7.5

-2.3Strength of Schedule1.8

-6.7Last 10 Net Efficiency11.0

72.2Tempo68.2

49.0%Effective FG%48.8%

19.9%Turnover Rate17.9%

31.8%Offensive Rebound %37.0%

42.8%Free Throw Rate37.0%

1.1Average Margin5.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

California Baptist HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY88.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMCalifornia Baptist holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.3–44.6), offensive efficiency (106.5–103.2), defensive efficiency (99.0–101.6), net efficiency (7.5–1.6).

Tarleton State COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (49.0–48.8), free throw rate (42.8–37.0).

Final

Tarleton State

48—68

California Baptist

California Baptist by 20 • 62.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Tarleton StateTEAM STATCalifornia Baptist

20-51FG22-48

39.0%FG%46.0%

4-143PT13-28

29.0%3PT%46.0%

4-14FT11-16

29.0%FT%69.0%

37Rebounds28

13Offensive Rebounds5

5Assists12

17Turnovers12

6Steals8

3Blocks4

16Fouls20

Player Box Score

Tarleton State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dantwan Grimes	Guard	31	5-12	0-4	1-2	1	0	1	0	11
Keitenn Bristow	F	36	4-12	1-4	1-2	10	2	2	0	10
Bubu Benjamin	G	35	4-9	2-4	0-0	4	0	1	0	10
Chris Mpaka	F	27	4-9	0-0	1-6	12	0	0	3	9
Izzy Miles	G	11	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	4
Karim Elgizawy	Guard	22	1-2	1-1	0-2	3	0	1	0	3
Jordan Mizell	G	33	0-4	0-0	1-2	1	3	1	0	1
Nick Krass	G	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

California Baptist

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Javonte Johnson	Guard	35	6-6	6-6	1-2	3	0	2	0	19
Tylen Riley	G	38	4-15	2-8	2-4	8	5	2	0	12
Dominique Daniels Jr.	G	30	4-13	1-7	2-2	1	5	1	0	11
Kendal Coleman	Forward	29	3-5	2-4	2-3	6	0	1	2	10
Sam Silverstein	G	33	3-3	1-1	2-3	3	0	2	0	9
Martel Williams	G	23	1-5	1-2	2-2	0	1	0	2	5
Bradey Henige	F	7	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
AJ Braun	Forward	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Mouhamadou Dioum	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Jalen Dollar	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.2Possessions62.2

77.2Offensive Efficiency109.3

109.3Defensive Efficiency77.2

-32.2Net Efficiency32.2

43.1%Effective FG%59.4%

41.6%True Shooting %61.2%

27.6%Turnover Rate19.2%

27.5%Free Throw Rate33.3%

27.5%3-Point Rate58.3%

0.29Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

California Baptist won by 20 points. The game played at approximately 62.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.