Marshall

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

24.2%Marshall

75.8%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -8.1

PROJECTED TOTAL164.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -313

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMarshall 78

Projected Total164.0

Projected ScoreArkansas State 86

Team Comparison

MarshallMetricArkansas State

52MMH Power Index57.7

114.7Offensive Efficiency113.1

110.3Defensive Efficiency105.3

4.4Net Efficiency7.8

0.9Strength of Schedule-1.0

-4.9Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

70.7Tempo73.3

55.2%Effective FG%52.7%

16.5%Turnover Rate19.4%

32.1%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

29.7%Free Throw Rate39.6%

3.1Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–52.0), defensive efficiency (105.3–110.3), net efficiency (7.8–4.4), recent form (15.2–-4.9).

Marshall COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (114.7–113.1), strength of schedule (0.9–-1.0), shooting efficiency (55.2–52.7).

Final

Marshall

74—77

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 3 • 68.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

MarshallTEAM STATArkansas State

24-63FG25-66

38.0%FG%38.0%

7-213PT5-24

33.0%3PT%21.0%

19-28FT22-29

68.0%FT%76.0%

44Rebounds44

16Offensive Rebounds16

14Assists7

9Turnovers4

2Steals7

11Blocks5

17Fouls18

Player Box Score

Marshall

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Obinna Anochili-Killen	Forward	34	8-18	1-4	9-13	13	0	1	8	26
Dezayne Mingo	G	39	5-17	0-2	4-6	8	6	0	0	14
Mikal Dawson	Guard	36	4-10	3-7	3-3	3	0	0	0	14
Cade Gibbs	Forward	17	3-5	1-3	2-3	4	1	0	0	9
Jalen Speer	G	30	2-8	2-5	0-0	1	2	1	1	6
Jakob Gibbs	Forward	16	1-1	0-0	1-3	2	1	0	0	3
Wyatt Fricks	F	7	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	2	2
Nate Martin	Forward	18	0-2	0-0	0-0	9	4	0	0	0
Kai Spears	G	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	32	7-19	2-7	3-6	3	2	4	0	19
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	39	6-13	2-5	4-4	5	3	2	0	18
Joseph Pinion	G	34	3-8	1-5	6-7	6	1	1	1	13
Kobe Julien	Forward	30	6-14	0-3	1-2	10	0	0	0	13
Izaiyah Nelson	F	36	2-6	0-0	8-8	14	1	0	3	12
Derrian Ford	G	20	1-5	0-3	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Rashaud Marshall	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-2	2	0	0	1	0
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Avery Felts	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.6Possessions68.6

107.9Offensive Efficiency112.2

112.2Defensive Efficiency107.9

-4.4Net Efficiency4.4

43.7%Effective FG%41.7%

48.5%True Shooting %48.3%

13.0%Turnover Rate5.9%

44.4%Free Throw Rate43.9%

33.3%3-Point Rate36.4%

1.56Assist / Turnover1.75

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 68.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.