Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

54.8%Arkansas State

45.2%South Alabama

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -0.3

PROJECTED TOTAL154.7

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -121

South Alabama

21-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 78

Projected Total154.7

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 77

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricSouth Alabama

57.7MMH Power Index51.4

113.1Offensive Efficiency110.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.9

7.8Net Efficiency6.4

-1.0Strength of Schedule-3.7

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency3.4

73.3Tempo67.4

52.7%Effective FG%53.2%

19.4%Turnover Rate12.8%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %24.9%

39.6%Free Throw Rate39.8%

5.8Average Margin4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY54.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–51.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.3), net efficiency (7.8–6.4), strength of schedule (-1.0–-3.7).

South Alabama COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), shooting efficiency (53.2–52.7), ball security (12.8–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

74—71

South Alabama

Arkansas State by 3 • 66.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATSouth Alabama

23-57FG25-59

40.0%FG%42.0%

12-333PT2-12

36.0%3PT%17.0%

16-24FT19-26

67.0%FT%73.0%

36Rebounds42

13Offensive Rebounds16

18Assists7

11Turnovers11

8Steals8

7Blocks1

19Fouls19

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Joseph Pinion	G	37	7-14	5-12	4-4	6	5	1	1	23
Kobe Julien	Forward	32	4-8	1-2	5-8	5	4	4	1	14
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	40	4-9	3-6	0-2	4	3	1	0	11
Izaiyah Nelson	F	21	4-6	0-0	2-4	4	1	0	2	10
Taryn Todd	Guard	27	3-9	2-5	1-2	3	1	1	0	9
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	13	0-5	0-4	4-4	6	1	1	1	4
Derrian Ford	G	19	1-4	1-3	0-0	2	3	0	0	3
Rashaud Marshall	F	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	2	0
Avery Felts	Guard	4	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Barry Dunning Jr.	G	38	10-21	1-4	6-6	13	1	3	0	27
Elijah Ormiston	Forward	25	8-16	1-1	4-8	9	1	0	0	21
Myles Corey	G	35	3-5	0-2	6-8	1	2	0	0	12
John Broom	G	30	1-2	0-0	2-2	5	0	2	0	4
Dylan Fasoyiro	Guard	27	1-3	0-1	1-2	5	2	1	1	3
Judah Brown	Forward	12	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
JJ Wheat	G	10	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	2
Cantia Rahming	Forward	9	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Jayden Cooper	G	8	0-5	0-2	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Randy Brady	F	6	0-3	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.4Possessions66.4

111.4Offensive Efficiency106.9

106.9Defensive Efficiency111.4

4.5Net Efficiency-4.5

50.9%Effective FG%44.1%

54.1%True Shooting %49.8%

16.6%Turnover Rate16.6%

42.1%Free Throw Rate44.1%

57.9%3-Point Rate20.3%

1.64Assist / Turnover0.64

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 66.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.