Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

47.3%Arkansas State

52.7%Troy

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTroy -2.1

PROJECTED TOTAL159.8

MODEL MONEYLINETroy -111

Troy

22-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total159.8

Projected ScoreTroy 81

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricTroy

57.7MMH Power Index54.1

113.1Offensive Efficiency112.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.9

7.8Net Efficiency8.7

-1.0Strength of Schedule-2.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency2.0

73.3Tempo70.4

52.7%Effective FG%52.1%

19.4%Turnover Rate17.1%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %35.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.8%

5.8Average Margin6.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.1), offensive efficiency (113.1–112.6), strength of schedule (-1.0–-2.2), recent form (15.2–2.0).

Troy COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), net efficiency (8.7–7.8), ball security (17.1–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

81—94

Troy

Troy by 13 • 74.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATTroy

26-63FG28-60

41.0%FG%47.0%

10-263PT5-17

38.0%3PT%29.0%

19-24FT33-39

79.0%FT%85.0%

35Rebounds39

13Offensive Rebounds12

13Assists10

12Turnovers8

4Steals7

6Blocks3

26Fouls21

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	24	6-9	3-4	4-4	5	1	0	4	19
Derrian Ford	G	28	5-9	3-6	4-5	4	3	0	0	17
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	39	3-7	1-2	4-5	0	7	2	0	11
Joseph Pinion	G	33	3-8	1-5	3-3	4	1	2	0	10
Kobe Julien	Forward	21	4-11	0-2	2-2	4	0	0	1	10
Taryn Todd	Guard	17	2-12	1-6	1-2	2	1	0	0	6
Izaiyah Nelson	F	33	2-6	0-0	1-3	10	0	0	1	5
Avery Felts	Guard	4	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Rashaud Marshall	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Troy

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tayton Conerway	G	32	8-17	0-1	5-7	6	3	0	0	21
Myles Rigsby	G	34	5-10	1-2	9-10	1	2	2	1	20
Thomas Dowd	F	31	4-9	1-5	5-5	9	0	3	1	14
Jackson Fields	F	23	3-5	1-2	3-4	2	0	0	1	10
Theo Seng	F	16	2-3	1-2	4-4	6	0	1	0	9
Marcus Rigsby Jr.	G	20	3-7	1-3	1-1	3	1	0	0	8
Cooper Campbell	G	20	1-4	0-1	4-4	4	2	1	0	6
Randarius Jones	C	9	1-2	0-0	2-4	1	0	0	0	4
Victor Valdes	F	13	1-3	0-1	0-0	1	2	0	0	2
Kerrington Kiel	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

74.0Possessions74.0

109.5Offensive Efficiency127.0

127.0Defensive Efficiency109.5

-17.6Net Efficiency17.6

49.2%Effective FG%50.8%

54.4%True Shooting %59.9%

16.3%Turnover Rate10.7%

38.1%Free Throw Rate65.0%

41.3%3-Point Rate28.3%

1.08Assist / Turnover1.25

Game Summary

Troy won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 74.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.