Cal Poly

14-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

32.7%Cal Poly

67.3%UC Davis

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC Davis -6.7

PROJECTED TOTAL164.3

MODEL MONEYLINEUC Davis -206

UC Davis

19-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal Poly 79

Projected Total164.3

Projected ScoreUC Davis 85

Team Comparison

Cal PolyMetricUC Davis

46.5MMH Power Index48.4

107.2Offensive Efficiency107.2

111.0Defensive Efficiency103.7

-3.8Net Efficiency3.5

1.7Strength of Schedule-1.9

2.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

76.6Tempo72.4

52.2%Effective FG%52.3%

19.8%Turnover Rate17.7%

29.9%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

35.8%Free Throw Rate41.5%

-2.9Average Margin2.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC Davis HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY67.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC Davis holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.4–46.5), defensive efficiency (103.7–111.0), net efficiency (3.5–-3.8), shooting efficiency (52.3–52.2).

Cal Poly COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.7–-1.9), recent form (2.4–-0.1), offensive rebounding (29.9–26.7).

Final

Cal Poly

86—76

UC Davis

Cal Poly by 10 • 71.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal PolyTEAM STATUC Davis

35-63FG27-54

56.0%FG%50.0%

11-253PT7-20

44.0%3PT%35.0%

5-9FT15-17

56.0%FT%88.0%

29Rebounds27

8Offensive Rebounds5

21Assists19

11Turnovers16

10Steals3

—Blocks4

16Fouls14

Player Box Score

Cal Poly

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Owen Koonce	Guard	33	7-13	2-4	2-3	4	6	2	18
Isaac Jessup	Guard	31	6-9	4-6	1-2	2	4	2	17
Jarred Hyder	Guard	37	6-12	4-8	0-0	4	2	2	16
Mac Riniker	Guard	29	6-10	0-1	0-0	5	2	2	12
Aaron Price Jr.	PF	8	5-5	1-1	0-0	2	1	0	11
Peter Bandelj	G	36	4-9	0-3	0-1	5	4	2	8
Cayden Ward	G	17	1-4	0-2	2-2	3	1	0	4
Luka Tarlac	G	9	0-1	0-0	0-1	0	1	0	0

UC Davis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Pablo Tamba	F	26	9-12	0-0	7-9	4	1	0	0	25
TY Johnson	Guard	35	7-17	2-6	3-3	3	11	0	1	19
Leo DeBruhl	Guard	30	3-7	3-5	2-2	4	3	0	2	11
Connor Sevilla	G	35	3-9	1-5	2-2	2	0	0	0	9
Sione Lose	Guard	23	2-2	0-0	1-1	3	0	1	1	5
Niko Rocak	F	17	2-4	0-1	0-0	4	2	1	0	4
Carl Daughtery Jr.	G	13	1-3	1-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	3
Nils Cooper	G	21	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	1	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.7Possessions71.7

119.9Offensive Efficiency106.0

106.0Defensive Efficiency119.9

13.9Net Efficiency-13.9

64.3%Effective FG%56.5%

63.9%True Shooting %61.2%

15.7%Turnover Rate21.9%

14.3%Free Throw Rate31.5%

39.7%3-Point Rate37.0%

1.91Assist / Turnover1.19

Game Summary

Cal Poly won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 71.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.