Tarleton State

14-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

11.6%Tarleton State

88.4%California Baptist

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCalifornia Baptist -12.9

PROJECTED TOTAL144.6

MODEL MONEYLINECalifornia Baptist -762

California Baptist

25-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTarleton State 66

Projected Total144.6

Projected ScoreCalifornia Baptist 79

Team Comparison

Tarleton StateMetricCalifornia Baptist

44.6MMH Power Index58.3

103.2Offensive Efficiency106.5

101.6Defensive Efficiency99.0

1.6Net Efficiency7.5

-2.3Strength of Schedule1.8

-6.7Last 10 Net Efficiency11.0

72.2Tempo68.2

49.0%Effective FG%48.8%

19.9%Turnover Rate17.9%

31.8%Offensive Rebound %37.0%

42.8%Free Throw Rate37.0%

1.1Average Margin5.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

California Baptist HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY88.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMCalifornia Baptist holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.3–44.6), offensive efficiency (106.5–103.2), defensive efficiency (99.0–101.6), net efficiency (7.5–1.6).

Tarleton State COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (49.0–48.8), free throw rate (42.8–37.0).

Final

Tarleton State

51—55

California Baptist

California Baptist by 4 • 61.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Tarleton StateTEAM STATCalifornia Baptist

19-44FG19-58

43.0%FG%33.0%

1-103PT7-26

10.0%3PT%27.0%

12-16FT10-14

75.0%FT%71.0%

26Rebounds39

3Offensive Rebounds15

6Assists12

11Turnovers13

4Steals7

5Blocks1

13Fouls15

Player Box Score

Tarleton State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dantwan Grimes	Guard	40	7-10	1-4	1-1	7	3	3	0	16
Freddy Hicks	G	34	3-8	0-1	7-11	2	1	0	1	13
Keitenn Bristow	F	37	6-14	0-2	0-0	5	1	0	2	12
Izzy Miles	G	34	2-5	0-1	2-2	3	0	0	0	6
Bubu Benjamin	G	40	1-6	0-2	0-0	3	1	0	1	2
Jordan Mizell	G	4	0-1	0-0	2-2	1	0	1	0	2
Nick Krass	G	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Chris Mpaka	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

California Baptist

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dominique Daniels Jr.	G	38	6-18	1-7	0-0	1	1	1	0	13
Tylen Riley	G	25	2-8	2-5	4-6	2	6	3	0	10
Martel Williams	G	21	4-12	1-6	0-0	5	0	0	0	9
Kendal Coleman	Forward	28	1-4	0-1	6-8	7	0	0	0	8
Adam Moussa	Guard	27	2-4	2-3	0-0	4	3	2	0	6
Bradey Henige	F	12	2-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	4
Javonte Johnson	Guard	22	1-5	1-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Sam Silverstein	G	27	1-5	0-1	0-0	12	2	1	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

61.2Possessions61.2

83.3Offensive Efficiency89.9

89.9Defensive Efficiency83.3

-6.5Net Efficiency6.5

44.3%Effective FG%38.8%

49.4%True Shooting %42.5%

18.5%Turnover Rate20.8%

36.4%Free Throw Rate24.1%

22.7%3-Point Rate44.8%

0.55Assist / Turnover0.92

Game Summary

California Baptist won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 61.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.