Saint Louis

29-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

62.1%Saint Louis

37.9%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSaint Louis -4.4

PROJECTED TOTAL163.1

MODEL MONEYLINESaint Louis -164

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSaint Louis 84

Projected Total163.1

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Team Comparison

Saint LouisMetricArkansas State

66.7MMH Power Index57.7

120.8Offensive Efficiency113.1

97.6Defensive Efficiency105.3

23.2Net Efficiency7.8

0.3Strength of Schedule-1.0

0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

72.2Tempo73.3

59.9%Effective FG%52.7%

17.1%Turnover Rate19.4%

31.6%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

33.9%Free Throw Rate39.6%

16.8Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Saint Louis HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY62.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSaint Louis holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (66.7–57.7), offensive efficiency (120.8–113.1), defensive efficiency (97.6–105.3), net efficiency (23.2–7.8).

Arkansas State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (15.2–0.1), offensive rebounding (38.1–31.6), free throw rate (39.6–33.9).

Final

Saint Louis

78—103

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 25 • 76.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Saint LouisTEAM STATArkansas State

28-58FG40-74

48.0%FG%54.0%

8-263PT16-35

31.0%3PT%46.0%

14-21FT7-13

67.0%FT%54.0%

34Rebounds38

6Offensive Rebounds11

12Assists24

13Turnovers8

5Steals10

2Blocks2

13Fouls17

Player Box Score

Saint Louis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Robbie Avila	C	31	7-13	5-10	3-4	8	2	0	0	22
Amari McCottry	G	29	8-10	0-0	4-6	10	3	2	0	20
Isaiah Swope	Guard	37	7-17	2-6	0-0	1	2	1	0	16
Gibson Jimerson	Guard	35	2-11	1-9	3-3	2	0	1	0	8
Kobe Johnson	Guard	25	2-3	0-1	2-4	6	1	0	1	6
Kalu Anya	F	19	1-3	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	0	2
Dylan Warlick	F	13	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	2
Max Pikaar	F	7	0-0	0-0	1-2	2	2	0	1	1
Kilian Brockhoff	F	2	0-0	0-0	1-2	0	0	0	0	1
Isaac Holmes	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Izaiyah Nelson	F	32	12-16	0-1	2-5	10	2	4	1	26
Taryn Todd	Guard	32	8-14	4-7	1-3	4	7	1	1	21
Derrian Ford	G	26	5-6	3-3	2-2	3	1	0	0	15
Kobe Julien	Forward	26	4-7	3-4	0-0	3	0	1	0	11
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	19	4-8	3-5	0-0	2	7	0	0	11
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	12	3-5	2-4	0-0	2	0	0	0	8
Cody Head	G	4	2-3	0-1	2-3	0	0	1	0	6
Joseph Pinion	G	29	2-10	1-5	0-0	8	5	3	0	5
Avery Felts	Guard	7	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Rashaud Marshall	F	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Hill	F	3	0-2	0-2	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Zane Butler	Guard	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Jacob St. Clair	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

76.1Possessions76.1

102.5Offensive Efficiency135.3

135.3Defensive Efficiency102.5

-32.9Net Efficiency32.9

55.2%Effective FG%64.9%

57.4%True Shooting %64.2%

17.3%Turnover Rate10.4%

36.2%Free Throw Rate17.6%

44.8%3-Point Rate47.3%

0.92Assist / Turnover3.00

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 25 points. The game played at approximately 76.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.