Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

52.6%Arkansas State

47.4%North Texas

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorth Texas -0.4

PROJECTED TOTAL150.8

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -111

North Texas

19-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 75

Projected Total150.8

Projected ScoreNorth Texas 76

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricNorth Texas

57.7MMH Power Index52.2

113.1Offensive Efficiency104.1

105.3Defensive Efficiency99.1

7.8Net Efficiency5.0

-1.0Strength of Schedule-1.3

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency4.8

73.3Tempo68.1

52.7%Effective FG%47.6%

19.4%Turnover Rate16.7%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %33.6%

39.6%Free Throw Rate41.1%

5.8Average Margin3.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–52.2), offensive efficiency (113.1–104.1), net efficiency (7.8–5.0), strength of schedule (-1.0–-1.3).

North Texas COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (99.1–105.3), ball security (16.7–19.4), free throw rate (41.1–39.6).

Final

Arkansas State

63—65

North Texas

North Texas by 2 • 61.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATNorth Texas

24-65FG25-57

37.0%FG%44.0%

8-273PT6-16

30.0%3PT%38.0%

7-9FT9-13

78.0%FT%69.0%

38Rebounds38

13Offensive Rebounds10

11Assists7

5Turnovers8

5Steals1

2Blocks8

14Fouls11

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Izaiyah Nelson	F	39	6-12	0-0	4-4	14	1	2	1	16
Kobe Julien	Forward	34	6-11	2-7	1-1	3	1	0	0	15
Taryn Todd	Guard	38	5-15	1-4	1-2	4	5	0	1	12
Derrian Ford	G	21	4-12	2-7	0-0	5	0	0	0	10
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	20	2-3	2-3	0-0	2	2	1	0	6
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	26	1-6	1-3	0-0	3	2	0	0	3
Joseph Pinion	G	22	0-6	0-3	1-2	3	0	2	0	1

North Texas

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jasper Floyd	G	34	8-17	1-3	1-3	5	4	1	0	18
Latrell Jossell	Guard	21	7-14	3-8	1-2	1	0	0	0	18
Grant Newell	F	27	3-8	1-2	2-2	6	0	0	2	9
Moulaye Sissoko	Forward	28	3-3	0-0	2-2	7	1	0	3	8
Brenen Lorient	F	25	2-5	0-0	3-4	8	0	0	2	7
Atin Wright	Guard	27	1-6	1-3	0-0	3	0	0	0	3
Johnathan Massie	Guard	23	1-4	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	1	2
Rondel Walker	Guard	15	0-0	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

61.3Possessions61.3

102.8Offensive Efficiency106.0

106.0Defensive Efficiency102.8

-3.3Net Efficiency3.3

43.1%Effective FG%49.1%

45.5%True Shooting %51.4%

8.2%Turnover Rate13.1%

13.8%Free Throw Rate22.8%

41.5%3-Point Rate28.1%

2.20Assist / Turnover0.88

Game Summary

North Texas won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 61.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.