Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

58.6%Illinois State

41.4%Presbyterian

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -2.2

PROJECTED TOTAL144.3

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -142

Presbyterian

15-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 73

Projected Total144.3

Projected ScorePresbyterian 71

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricPresbyterian

54.3MMH Power Index46.6

110.6Offensive Efficiency107.2

101.4Defensive Efficiency106.9

9.2Net Efficiency0.3

1.0Strength of Schedule-1.6

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.9

67.5Tempo67.5

54.3%Effective FG%52.3%

16.8%Turnover Rate19.3%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %33.7%

32.0%Free Throw Rate41.1%

6.2Average Margin0.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY58.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–46.6), offensive efficiency (110.6–107.2), defensive efficiency (101.4–106.9), net efficiency (9.2–0.3).

Presbyterian COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-2.9–-4.4), offensive rebounding (33.7–28.3), free throw rate (41.1–32.0).

Final

Illinois State

78—70

Presbyterian

Illinois State by 8 • 66.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATPresbyterian

30-50FG26-57

60.0%FG%46.0%

6-193PT5-15

32.0%3PT%33.0%

12-14FT13-16

86.0%FT%81.0%

30Rebounds24

4Offensive Rebounds7

14Assists5

14Turnovers9

5Steals9

2Blocks3

17Fouls14

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chase Walker	F	27	8-11	0-1	4-4	9	2	0	1	20
Ty Pence	G	30	6-8	0-1	5-6	6	2	0	0	17
Dalton Banks	Guard	32	5-9	0-2	0-1	3	5	1	0	10
Johnny Kinziger	G	30	4-7	2-4	0-0	3	1	3	1	10
Jordan Davis	Guard	27	3-6	2-4	0-0	3	2	1	0	8
Caden Boser	Forward	13	2-3	1-2	1-1	1	1	0	0	6
Jack Daugherty	F	17	2-4	1-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	5
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	18	0-1	0-1	2-2	0	1	0	0	2
Landon Wolf	G	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Presbyterian

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kory Mincy	G	32	8-18	3-6	2-2	1	0	2	0	21
Kobe Stewart	Not Available	30	6-11	0-1	3-3	8	0	2	0	15
Quadir Pettaway	Guard	15	3-6	2-3	2-3	0	1	0	0	10
Triston Wilson	G	21	3-3	0-0	1-1	3	1	1	0	7
Kaleb Scott	Not Available	22	2-5	0-0	2-3	2	1	0	0	6
Jaylen Peterson	F	23	2-3	0-0	0-0	3	2	2	3	4
Carl Parrish	G	13	2-4	0-1	0-0	3	0	1	0	4
Jamahri Harvey	Not Available	26	0-4	0-4	3-4	0	0	0	0	3
Iverson King	G	15	0-3	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Houston Jones	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.7Possessions66.7

116.9Offensive Efficiency104.9

104.9Defensive Efficiency116.9

12.0Net Efficiency-12.0

66.0%Effective FG%50.0%

68.8%True Shooting %54.2%

21.0%Turnover Rate13.5%

28.0%Free Throw Rate28.1%

38.0%3-Point Rate26.3%

1.00Assist / Turnover0.56

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 8 points. The game played at approximately 66.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.