Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

63.9%Illinois State

36.1%Incarnate Word

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -3.3

PROJECTED TOTAL146.5

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -177

Incarnate Word

12-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 75

Projected Total146.5

Projected ScoreIncarnate Word 72

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricIncarnate Word

54.3MMH Power Index44.6

110.6Offensive Efficiency112.0

101.4Defensive Efficiency111.2

9.2Net Efficiency0.8

1.0Strength of Schedule-3.6

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-8.5

67.5Tempo66.3

54.3%Effective FG%52.2%

16.8%Turnover Rate16.8%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %34.4%

32.0%Free Throw Rate34.0%

6.2Average Margin0.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY63.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–44.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–111.2), net efficiency (9.2–0.8), strength of schedule (1.0–-3.6).

Incarnate Word COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (112.0–110.6), offensive rebounding (34.4–28.3), free throw rate (34.0–32.0).

Final

Illinois State

78—73

Incarnate Word

Illinois State by 5 • 69.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATIncarnate Word

24-55FG23-58

44.0%FG%40.0%

5-173PT3-15

29.0%3PT%20.0%

25-33FT24-28

76.0%FT%86.0%

36Rebounds36

11Offensive Rebounds11

12Assists4

10Turnovers8

3Steals7

2Blocks2

17Fouls25

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chase Walker	F	28	10-16	0-0	7-11	8	2	1	1	27
Ty Pence	G	31	6-11	1-1	2-2	10	0	0	0	15
Johnny Kinziger	G	35	3-9	1-5	6-8	4	2	0	1	13
Caden Boser	Forward	11	2-4	1-3	3-3	4	1	0	0	8
Dalton Banks	Guard	31	1-3	0-0	5-6	4	5	1	0	7
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	19	2-3	2-3	0-1	2	2	0	0	6
Jordan Davis	Guard	28	0-5	0-2	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Landon Wolf	G	10	0-3	0-2	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Jack Daugherty	F	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Cade Norris	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Incarnate Word

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dylan Hayman	Forward	40	7-14	2-3	8-10	5	0	1	1	24
Jalin Anderson	Point Guard	40	7-19	0-3	2-2	3	3	1	0	16
Davion Bailey	G	40	4-11	1-7	5-6	3	0	0	0	14
Jordan Pyke	F	32	3-8	0-0	7-8	9	1	1	0	13
Mintautas Mockus	Forward	17	2-4	0-2	0-0	9	0	1	0	4
Jayden Williams	C	21	0-2	0-0	2-2	2	0	3	1	2
Marcus Glover	F	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.0Possessions69.0

113.0Offensive Efficiency105.8

105.8Defensive Efficiency113.0

7.2Net Efficiency-7.2

48.2%Effective FG%42.2%

55.2%True Shooting %51.2%

14.4%Turnover Rate11.7%

60.0%Free Throw Rate48.3%

30.9%3-Point Rate25.9%

1.20Assist / Turnover0.50

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 69.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.