Duke

35-3

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

70.5%Duke

29.5%Arkansas

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -5.1

PROJECTED TOTAL161.9

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -239

Arkansas

28-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreDuke 84

Projected Total161.9

Projected ScoreArkansas 78

Team Comparison

DukeMetricArkansas

81.7MMH Power Index69.3

122.2Offensive Efficiency122.2

95.2Defensive Efficiency109.8

27.0Net Efficiency12.4

7.8Strength of Schedule8.6

18.7Last 10 Net Efficiency3.4

66.8Tempo73.8

56.9%Effective FG%56.4%

15.9%Turnover Rate12.2%

38.2%Offensive Rebound %31.8%

39.0%Free Throw Rate36.5%

18.0Average Margin9.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–69.3), defensive efficiency (95.2–109.8), net efficiency (27.0–12.4), recent form (18.7–3.4).

Arkansas COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (8.6–7.8), ball security (12.2–15.9).

Final

Duke

75—80

Arkansas

Arkansas by 5 • 76.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

DukeTEAM STATArkansas

24-67FG26-53

35.8%FG%49.1%

6-223PT9-22

27.3%3PT%40.9%

21-31FT19-30

67.7%FT%63.3%

35Rebounds40

12Offensive Rebounds5

10Assists17

8Turnovers12

7Steals6

3Blocks10

24Fouls21

Player Box Score

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kyle Filipowski	Forward	32	9-20	1-5	7-8	10	1	2	1	26
Jeremy Roach	Guard	38	7-13	1-1	7-9	2	3	1	0	22
Tyrese Proctor	Guard	33	3-12	1-6	0-0	2	2	2	0	7
Mark Mitchell	G	19	2-8	0-3	2-2	3	0	0	0	6
TJ Power	F	13	2-2	2-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	6
Jared McCain	Guard	32	1-7	1-3	2-4	11	3	2	0	5
Caleb Foster	G	19	0-5	0-2	2-4	0	1	0	0	2
Ryan Young	Center	9	0-0	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	2	1
Sean Stewart	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-2	0	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Blakes	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Christian Reeves	C	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Arkansas

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Khalif Battle	Guard	31	5-13	3-8	8-11	5	5	0	0	21
Trevon Brazile	F	38	6-9	4-7	3-6	11	0	0	2	19
El Ellis	Guard	31	3-9	0-2	3-4	3	6	0	1	9
Layden Blocker	G	21	3-3	0-0	3-5	3	1	2	0	9
Chandler Lawson	Forward	29	3-8	0-0	1-2	8	1	1	6	7
Jeremiah Davenport	Guard	15	2-4	2-4	0-0	0	1	0	1	6
Makhi Mitchell	Forward	9	3-3	0-0	0-0	3	1	1	0	6
Davonte Davis	Guard	23	1-3	0-1	1-2	3	2	1	0	3
Jalen Graham	Forward	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Baye Fall	C	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

76.0Possessions76.0

98.7Offensive Efficiency105.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency98.7

-6.6Net Efficiency6.6

40.3%Effective FG%57.5%

45.9%True Shooting %59.5%

10.3%Turnover Rate16.2%

46.3%Free Throw Rate56.6%

32.8%3-Point Rate41.5%

1.25Assist / Turnover1.42

Game Summary

Arkansas won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 76.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, True Shooting %, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.