North Carolina

24-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

41.0%North Carolina

59.0%Kentucky

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADKentucky -3.0

PROJECTED TOTAL155.8

MODEL MONEYLINEKentucky -144

Kentucky

22-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 76

Projected Total155.8

Projected ScoreKentucky 79

Team Comparison

North CarolinaMetricKentucky

65.2MMH Power Index63.9

115.5Offensive Efficiency115.2

103.8Defensive Efficiency106.3

11.7Net Efficiency8.9

7.6Strength of Schedule8.7

-1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.0

69.0Tempo69.9

54.6%Effective FG%53.2%

13.9%Turnover Rate15.4%

31.1%Offensive Rebound %33.2%

38.1%Free Throw Rate38.0%

8.1Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Carolina HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY59.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Carolina holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (65.2–63.9), offensive efficiency (115.5–115.2), defensive efficiency (103.8–106.3), net efficiency (11.7–8.9).

Kentucky COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (8.7–7.6), recent form (-1.0–-1.8), offensive rebounding (33.2–31.1).

Final

North Carolina

83—87

Kentucky

Kentucky by 4 • 80.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North CarolinaTEAM STATKentucky

27-57FG30-72

47.4%FG%41.7%

8-243PT8-23

33.3%3PT%34.8%

21-27FT19-26

77.8%FT%73.1%

32Rebounds43

6Offensive Rebounds18

12Assists15

17Turnovers14

7Steals7

5Blocks9

22Fouls19

Player Box Score

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
RJ Davis	Guard	38	8-18	3-9	8-9	7	4	0	0	27
Cormac Ryan	Guard	33	8-12	4-7	0-0	4	0	1	0	20
Harrison Ingram	Forward	34	4-10	0-3	2-4	4	3	3	2	10
Armando Bacot	Forward	31	3-4	0-0	3-4	6	0	1	1	9
Seth Trimble	G	16	1-4	1-2	3-4	3	0	0	0	6
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	19	1-4	0-2	2-2	3	2	2	2	4
Elliot Cadeau	G	18	1-2	0-0	1-2	1	3	0	0	3
Jalen Washington	F	8	0-2	0-1	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Paxson Wojcik	Guard	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Zayden High	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Kentucky

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Rob Dillingham	Guard	25	6-16	1-6	4-6	3	1	1	0	17
DJ Wagner	G	35	6-14	2-4	0-1	6	5	1	0	14
Aaron Bradshaw	F	21	4-6	1-1	3-5	3	0	2	0	12
Reed Sheppard	Guard	25	4-9	1-3	2-2	6	2	2	1	11
Antonio Reeves	Guard	23	2-9	1-3	4-4	4	1	1	1	9
Tre Mitchell	Center	33	3-5	1-3	1-2	5	2	0	0	8
Justin Edwards	Forward	13	3-9	0-1	2-2	6	1	0	0	8
Adou Thiero	Forward	16	2-4	1-2	2-2	1	2	0	4	7
Ugonna Onyenso	C	9	0-0	0-0	1-2	1	1	0	3	1

Advanced Game Stats

80.6Possessions80.6

103.0Offensive Efficiency107.9

107.9Defensive Efficiency103.0

-5.0Net Efficiency5.0

54.4%Effective FG%47.2%

59.4%True Shooting %51.6%

21.0%Turnover Rate17.4%

47.4%Free Throw Rate36.1%

42.1%3-Point Rate31.9%

0.71Assist / Turnover1.07

Game Summary

Kentucky won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 80.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.