Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

17.1%Illinois State

82.9%Kentucky

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADKentucky -9.7

PROJECTED TOTAL150.6

MODEL MONEYLINEKentucky -485

Kentucky

22-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 70

Projected Total150.6

Projected ScoreKentucky 80

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricKentucky

54.3MMH Power Index63.9

110.6Offensive Efficiency115.2

101.4Defensive Efficiency106.3

9.2Net Efficiency8.9

1.0Strength of Schedule8.7

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.0

67.5Tempo69.9

54.3%Effective FG%53.2%

16.8%Turnover Rate15.4%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %33.2%

32.0%Free Throw Rate38.0%

6.2Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Kentucky HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY82.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMKentucky holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (63.9–54.3), offensive efficiency (115.2–110.6), strength of schedule (8.7–1.0), recent form (-1.0–-4.4).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.4–106.3), net efficiency (9.2–8.9), shooting efficiency (54.3–53.2).

Final

Illinois State

70—96

Kentucky

Kentucky by 26 • 70.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATKentucky

26-79FG36-63

32.9%FG%57.1%

8-353PT11-25

22.9%3PT%44.0%

10-18FT13-17

55.6%FT%76.5%

45Rebounds40

24Offensive Rebounds7

13Assists23

8Turnovers6

3Steals7

2Blocks9

18Fouls16

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Myles Foster	Forward	30	8-11	1-1	3-5	15	2	0	0	20
Darius Burford	Guard	31	5-15	1-4	2-2	5	2	1	0	13
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	28	5-16	3-10	0-0	5	1	0	1	13
Dalton Banks	Guard	34	4-10	2-5	1-4	3	7	2	0	11
Kendall Lewis	Forward	23	2-9	0-1	4-5	7	0	0	1	8
Johnny Kinziger	G	12	1-3	1-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Jordan Davis	Guard	17	1-8	0-6	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Ty Pence	G	11	0-4	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Luke Kasubke	Guard	7	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Brandon Lieb	F	5	0-2	0-2	0-2	2	1	0	0	0
Ryan Schmitt	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Nik Stadelman	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Kentucky

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Antonio Reeves	Guard	34	10-15	4-8	3-3	6	2	0	0	27
Rob Dillingham	Guard	22	5-10	1-2	5-5	3	7	3	0	16
DJ Wagner	G	29	6-10	2-3	0-0	2	3	0	0	14
Reed Sheppard	Guard	24	4-8	2-5	1-1	5	5	2	2	11
Justin Edwards	Forward	21	4-8	1-4	0-0	4	2	2	0	9
Tre Mitchell	Center	29	2-4	1-3	3-4	11	4	0	1	8
Jordan Burks	F	11	2-2	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	2	5
Ugonna Onyenso	C	10	2-2	0-0	0-2	2	0	0	3	4
Aaron Bradshaw	F	15	1-4	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	2
Brennan Canada	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Walker Horn	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Grant Darbyshire	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Joey Hart	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Kareem Watkins	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.9Possessions70.9

98.7Offensive Efficiency135.4

135.4Defensive Efficiency98.7

-36.7Net Efficiency36.7

38.0%Effective FG%65.9%

40.0%True Shooting %67.5%

11.2%Turnover Rate8.6%

22.8%Free Throw Rate27.0%

44.3%3-Point Rate39.7%

1.63Assist / Turnover3.83

Game Summary

Kentucky won by 26 points. The game played at approximately 70.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.