Illinois

28-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

46.5%Illinois

53.5%Purdue

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADPurdue -1.1

PROJECTED TOTAL154.5

MODEL MONEYLINEPurdue -115

Purdue

30-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois 77

Projected Total154.5

Projected ScorePurdue 78

Team Comparison

IllinoisMetricPurdue

76.5MMH Power Index73.2

125.0Offensive Efficiency124.8

103.3Defensive Efficiency107.8

21.7Net Efficiency17.0

6.7Strength of Schedule7.6

12.7Last 10 Net Efficiency11.8

66.5Tempo65.4

54.8%Effective FG%57.8%

13.1%Turnover Rate13.7%

39.3%Offensive Rebound %36.2%

33.8%Free Throw Rate29.1%

14.5Average Margin11.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY53.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (76.5–73.2), offensive efficiency (125.0–124.8), defensive efficiency (103.3–107.8), net efficiency (21.7–17.0).

Purdue COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (7.6–6.7), shooting efficiency (57.8–54.8).

Final

Illinois

78—83

Purdue

Purdue by 5 • 68.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

IllinoisTEAM STATPurdue

26-61FG27-60

42.6%FG%45.0%

8-193PT9-19

42.1%3PT%47.4%

18-21FT20-25

85.7%FT%80.0%

28Rebounds43

12Offensive Rebounds18

15Assists18

11Turnovers12

5Steals5

3Blocks4

19Fouls17

Player Box Score

Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Marcus Domask	Forward	40	8-17	1-2	9-10	3	5	1	0	26
Quincy Guerrier	Forward	38	7-13	0-1	4-5	10	0	0	0	18
Luke Goode	Forward	35	5-11	4-8	2-2	0	0	2	0	16
Coleman Hawkins	Guard	35	3-9	2-5	3-4	4	6	1	1	11
Justin Harmon	Guard	24	2-6	1-3	0-0	4	2	0	0	5
Ty Rodgers	G	13	1-4	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	1	2
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn	G	9	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	0	0
Dain Dainja	Forward	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	1	0

Purdue

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Trey Kaufman-Renn	F	26	8-12	1-1	6-7	4	2	0	1	23
Lance Jones	Guard	32	4-11	2-6	7-7	2	1	1	1	17
Braden Smith	G	38	4-12	1-3	5-6	6	6	1	0	14
Zach Edey	Center	23	5-5	0-0	0-3	15	3	1	2	10
Mason Gillis	Forward	20	3-6	2-3	0-0	8	2	0	0	8
Fletcher Loyer	G	27	1-8	1-1	2-2	2	3	1	0	5
Ethan Morton	Guard	13	1-3	1-3	0-0	0	0	1	0	3
Camden Heide	F	12	1-2	1-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	3
Caleb Furst	Forward	9	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.0Possessions68.0

114.7Offensive Efficiency122.1

122.1Defensive Efficiency114.7

-7.4Net Efficiency7.4

49.2%Effective FG%52.5%

54.9%True Shooting %57.7%

15.7%Turnover Rate18.2%

34.4%Free Throw Rate41.7%

31.1%3-Point Rate31.7%

1.36Assist / Turnover1.50

Game Summary

Purdue won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 68.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.