North Carolina

24-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

51.5%North Carolina

48.5%NC State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNC State -0.9

PROJECTED TOTAL158.6

MODEL MONEYLINENorth Carolina -106

NC State

20-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 79

Projected Total158.6

Projected ScoreNC State 80

Team Comparison

North CarolinaMetricNC State

65.2MMH Power Index60.1

115.5Offensive Efficiency118.4

103.8Defensive Efficiency108.6

11.7Net Efficiency9.8

7.6Strength of Schedule6.4

-1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-11.9

69.0Tempo70.2

54.6%Effective FG%55.1%

13.9%Turnover Rate13.1%

31.1%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

38.1%Free Throw Rate35.7%

8.1Average Margin6.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Carolina HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY51.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Carolina holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (65.2–60.1), defensive efficiency (103.8–108.6), net efficiency (11.7–9.8), strength of schedule (7.6–6.4).

NC State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (118.4–115.5), shooting efficiency (55.1–54.6), ball security (13.1–13.9).

Final

North Carolina

67—54

NC State

North Carolina by 13 • 72.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North CarolinaTEAM STATNC State

24-62FG18-66

38.7%FG%27.3%

7-213PT2-20

33.3%3PT%10.0%

12-20FT16-21

60.0%FT%76.2%

49Rebounds41

13Offensive Rebounds13

11Assists9

13Turnovers10

5Steals7

4Blocks5

15Fouls18

Player Box Score

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
RJ Davis	Guard	35	6-19	4-10	0-0	4	1	1	0	16
Elliot Cadeau	G	33	4-8	0-0	3-4	1	6	1	0	11
Harrison Ingram	Forward	35	4-9	1-3	0-2	19	1	1	0	9
Armando Bacot	Forward	24	3-7	0-0	3-4	5	1	1	1	9
Cormac Ryan	Guard	30	3-9	2-6	0-0	3	0	0	0	8
Seth Trimble	G	14	2-4	0-0	2-3	2	1	1	0	6
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	12	0-1	0-1	4-7	3	1	0	2	4
Jalen Washington	F	12	1-4	0-1	0-0	8	0	0	0	2
Zayden High	F	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	2
Paxson Wojcik	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Creighton Lebo	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Casey Morsell	Guard	32	3-12	0-5	6-6	7	0	0	1	12
DJ Burns	Forward	28	4-8	0-0	3-3	2	1	0	2	11
Mohamed Diarra	Forward	13	2-5	1-2	2-2	2	0	1	0	7
DJ Horne	Guard	36	2-16	0-3	2-4	9	4	2	1	6
Jayden Taylor	Guard	25	2-7	1-4	1-2	5	0	0	0	6
Dennis Parker Jr.	G	27	2-7	0-2	0-0	5	0	0	1	4
Michael O'Connell	Guard	21	2-4	0-1	0-0	4	2	3	0	4
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	12	0-3	0-1	2-4	2	2	1	0	2
MJ Rice	Guard	6	1-4	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

72.3Possessions72.3

92.7Offensive Efficiency74.7

74.7Defensive Efficiency92.7

18.0Net Efficiency-18.0

44.4%Effective FG%28.8%

46.9%True Shooting %35.5%

18.2%Turnover Rate13.7%

32.3%Free Throw Rate31.8%

33.9%3-Point Rate30.3%

0.85Assist / Turnover0.90

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 72.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.