Michigan State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

22.2%Michigan State

77.8%Illinois

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois -8.7

PROJECTED TOTAL151.3

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois -350

Illinois

28-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMichigan State 71

Projected Total151.3

Projected ScoreIllinois 80

Team Comparison

Michigan StateMetricIllinois

69.8MMH Power Index76.5

117.0Offensive Efficiency125.0

101.5Defensive Efficiency103.3

15.5Net Efficiency21.7

7.2Strength of Schedule6.7

9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency12.7

67.3Tempo66.5

54.1%Effective FG%54.8%

17.2%Turnover Rate13.1%

37.7%Offensive Rebound %39.3%

36.6%Free Throw Rate33.8%

10.5Average Margin14.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY77.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (76.5–69.8), offensive efficiency (125.0–117.0), net efficiency (21.7–15.5), recent form (12.7–9.5).

Michigan State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.5–103.3), strength of schedule (7.2–6.7), free throw rate (36.6–33.8).

Final

Michigan State

68—71

Illinois

Illinois by 3 • 65.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Michigan StateTEAM STATIllinois

29-69FG23-55

42.0%FG%41.8%

5-193PT7-21

26.3%3PT%33.3%

5-7FT18-22

71.4%FT%81.8%

37Rebounds34

13Offensive Rebounds8

10Assists11

7Turnovers8

4Steals3

4Blocks6

15Fouls10

Player Box Score

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyson Walker	Guard	29	8-17	1-7	0-0	2	1	0	0	17
AJ Hoggard	Guard	34	6-19	1-4	3-4	6	3	1	0	16
Malik Hall	Forward	36	6-12	0-0	2-3	7	3	1	0	14
Jaden Akins	Guard	32	5-12	3-7	0-0	5	0	1	0	13
Mady Sissoko	Center	23	2-5	0-0	0-0	10	0	1	1	4
Coen Carr	F	7	2-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	4
Tre Holloman	G	22	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	3	0	0	0
Carson Cooper	C	16	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	2	0
Jaxon Kohler	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Marcus Domask	Forward	38	4-12	1-4	6-6	6	5	0	0	15
Coleman Hawkins	Guard	37	4-9	3-5	4-4	7	2	2	4	15
Ty Rodgers	G	20	6-8	0-0	3-4	1	0	0	1	15
Quincy Guerrier	Forward	33	4-12	1-6	1-2	6	1	0	1	10
Justin Harmon	Guard	31	2-7	2-4	4-4	4	2	0	0	10
Luke Goode	Forward	36	2-5	0-2	0-1	6	1	1	0	4
Dain Dainja	Forward	5	1-2	0-0	0-1	1	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

65.9Possessions65.9

103.2Offensive Efficiency107.7

107.7Defensive Efficiency103.2

-4.6Net Efficiency4.6

45.7%Effective FG%48.2%

47.0%True Shooting %54.2%

10.6%Turnover Rate12.2%

10.1%Free Throw Rate40.0%

27.5%3-Point Rate38.2%

1.43Assist / Turnover1.38

Game Summary

Illinois won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 65.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.