UConn

34-5

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

66.7%UConn

33.3%Villanova

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUConn -3.6

PROJECTED TOTAL146.1

MODEL MONEYLINEUConn -200

Villanova

24-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUConn 75

Projected Total146.1

Projected ScoreVillanova 71

Team Comparison

UConnMetricVillanova

70.2MMH Power Index59.4

116.3Offensive Efficiency114.7

98.4Defensive Efficiency105.9

17.9Net Efficiency8.8

6.3Strength of Schedule4.4

9.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.1

66.2Tempo67.3

55.0%Effective FG%53.9%

16.4%Turnover Rate15.0%

35.4%Offensive Rebound %31.8%

30.7%Free Throw Rate31.4%

11.8Average Margin5.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UConn HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUConn holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (70.2–59.4), offensive efficiency (116.3–114.7), defensive efficiency (98.4–105.9), net efficiency (17.9–8.8).

Villanova COUNTERS WITHball security (15.0–16.4), free throw rate (31.4–30.7).

Final

UConn

66—65

Villanova

UConn by 1 • 59.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

UConnTEAM STATVillanova

20-49FG22-49

40.8%FG%44.9%

8-273PT7-23

29.6%3PT%30.4%

18-24FT14-17

75.0%FT%82.4%

30Rebounds30

8Offensive Rebounds6

13Assists10

7Turnovers8

2Steals5

5Blocks2

14Fouls21

Player Box Score

UConn

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tristen Newton	Guard	39	8-17	3-9	6-7	6	3	0	1	25
Cam Spencer	Guard	37	3-11	1-6	7-7	4	3	1	0	14
Alex Karaban	F	37	3-8	2-5	2-2	5	2	0	1	10
Donovan Clingan	Center	24	3-4	0-0	0-2	7	0	0	2	6
Stephon Castle	Guard	17	1-5	1-4	3-4	3	2	1	0	6
Hassan Diarra	Guard	24	1-2	1-2	0-0	2	3	0	0	3
Samson Johnson	Center	16	1-1	0-0	0-2	2	0	0	1	2
Jaylin Stewart	F	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Solo Ball	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Villanova

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
TJ Bamba	Guard	36	4-11	3-9	4-6	4	1	1	0	15
Justin Moore	Guard	30	7-9	1-3	0-0	5	1	0	0	15
Eric Dixon	Forward	31	1-6	0-3	7-7	7	4	0	1	9
Tyler Burton	Forward	23	2-4	2-2	3-4	1	0	2	0	9
Mark Armstrong	Guard	12	4-7	1-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	9
Hakim Hart	Guard	26	4-6	0-2	0-0	5	2	0	0	8
Jordan Longino	Guard	21	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	2	0	0
Brendan Hausen	G	11	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Lance Ware	Forward	10	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

59.3Possessions59.3

111.3Offensive Efficiency109.6

109.6Defensive Efficiency111.3

1.7Net Efficiency-1.7

49.0%Effective FG%52.0%

54.6%True Shooting %56.9%

11.8%Turnover Rate13.5%

49.0%Free Throw Rate34.7%

55.1%3-Point Rate46.9%

1.86Assist / Turnover1.25

Game Summary

UConn won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 59.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.