Auburn

21-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

25.4%Auburn

74.6%Alabama

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAlabama -8.2

PROJECTED TOTAL174.2

MODEL MONEYLINEAlabama -294

Alabama

24-10

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAuburn 83

Projected Total174.2

Projected ScoreAlabama 91

Team Comparison

AuburnMetricAlabama

64.4MMH Power Index69.5

118.8Offensive Efficiency121.6

113.0Defensive Efficiency111.2

5.8Net Efficiency10.4

7.5Strength of Schedule9.4

8.0Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

69.8Tempo74.7

53.1%Effective FG%54.9%

14.5%Turnover Rate13.0%

36.5%Offensive Rebound %32.1%

43.8%Free Throw Rate36.9%

4.1Average Margin7.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Alabama HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY74.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAlabama holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.5–64.4), offensive efficiency (121.6–118.8), defensive efficiency (111.2–113.0), net efficiency (10.4–5.8).

Auburn COUNTERS WITHoffensive rebounding (36.5–32.1), free throw rate (43.8–36.9).

Final

Auburn

75—79

Alabama

Alabama by 4 • 74.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

AuburnTEAM STATAlabama

28-67FG26-68

41.8%FG%38.2%

5-253PT11-30

20.0%3PT%36.7%

14-18FT16-19

77.8%FT%84.2%

41Rebounds46

12Offensive Rebounds16

11Assists13

11Turnovers14

10Steals6

10Blocks3

20Fouls19

Player Box Score

Auburn

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johni Broome	Forward	26	11-17	1-2	2-2	14	1	0	5	25
Chad Baker-Mazara	G	20	3-8	0-2	5-7	0	0	3	1	11
Denver Jones	Guard	21	3-8	1-5	2-2	2	1	3	0	9
K.D. Johnson	Guard	22	3-7	0-4	2-2	2	2	0	1	8
Tre Donaldson	G	18	3-5	2-3	0-0	1	3	1	0	8
Jaylin Williams	Forward	29	3-9	0-3	1-2	11	0	1	0	7
Chris Moore	Forward	10	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Aden Holloway	G	22	0-7	0-5	2-3	2	3	0	0	2
Dylan Cardwell	Center	14	1-2	0-0	0-0	3	1	1	3	2
Chaney Johnson	Forward	11	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	0
Lior Berman	Guard	7	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mark Sears	Guard	38	9-21	1-5	3-3	5	8	3	0	22
Rylan Griffen	G	31	5-12	5-10	2-3	7	1	0	1	17
Latrell Wrightsell	G	33	5-11	4-6	0-0	9	1	1	0	14
Grant Nelson	Forward	31	3-8	0-2	8-9	11	0	1	1	14
Jarin Stevenson	F	23	2-4	1-2	1-2	3	0	0	0	6
Mohamed Wague	F	9	1-1	0-0	2-2	2	0	1	1	4
Nick Pringle	F	10	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Aaron Estrada	Guard	17	0-5	0-2	0-0	3	2	0	0	0
Mo Dioubate	F	4	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Sam Walters	F	4	0-3	0-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

74.8Possessions74.8

100.3Offensive Efficiency105.6

105.6Defensive Efficiency100.3

-5.3Net Efficiency5.3

45.5%Effective FG%46.3%

49.6%True Shooting %51.3%

14.8%Turnover Rate18.7%

26.9%Free Throw Rate27.9%

37.3%3-Point Rate44.1%

1.00Assist / Turnover0.93

Game Summary

Alabama won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 74.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.