Illinois

28-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

86.3%Illinois

13.7%Northwestern

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois -11.5

PROJECTED TOTAL150.2

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois -630

Northwestern

15-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois 81

Projected Total150.2

Projected ScoreNorthwestern 69

Team Comparison

IllinoisMetricNorthwestern

76.5MMH Power Index55.4

125.0Offensive Efficiency111.6

103.3Defensive Efficiency109.8

21.7Net Efficiency1.8

6.7Strength of Schedule5.6

12.7Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.7

66.5Tempo65.6

54.8%Effective FG%51.9%

13.1%Turnover Rate13.0%

39.3%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

33.8%Free Throw Rate34.8%

14.5Average Margin1.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY86.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (76.5–55.4), offensive efficiency (125.0–111.6), defensive efficiency (103.3–109.8), net efficiency (21.7–1.8).

Northwestern COUNTERS WITHball security (13.0–13.1), free throw rate (34.8–33.8).

Final

Illinois

91—96

Northwestern

Northwestern by 5 • 74.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

IllinoisTEAM STATNorthwestern

31-76FG38-69

41.0%FG%55.0%

11-243PT11-18

46.0%3PT%61.0%

18-24FT9-13

75.0%FT%69.0%

46Rebounds32

21Offensive Rebounds7

14Assists16

10Turnovers5

5Steals6

3Blocks5

15Fouls19

Player Box Score

Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Marcus Domask	Forward	42	9-18	2-4	2-3	2	6	1	0	22
Coleman Hawkins	Guard	42	8-16	2-3	4-4	13	1	2	2	22
Quincy Guerrier	Forward	35	4-12	3-6	4-6	11	0	0	0	15
Terrence Shannon Jr.	Not Available	40	3-8	1-5	5-6	3	3	2	1	12
Luke Goode	Forward	21	2-5	2-4	2-2	4	1	0	0	8
Justin Harmon	Guard	28	2-8	1-2	1-2	3	1	0	0	6
Ty Rodgers	G	16	3-7	0-0	0-1	7	2	0	0	6
Dain Dainja	Forward	1	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Northwestern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Boo Buie	Guard	42	12-25	3-5	2-2	3	7	3	0	29
Brooks Barnhizer	Guard	44	9-15	4-6	1-2	5	2	1	0	23
Ty Berry	Guard	33	4-7	3-6	3-4	4	1	1	0	14
Matthew Nicholson	Center	34	6-7	0-0	0-0	8	3	0	4	12
Ryan Langborg	Guard	41	3-8	1-1	2-3	6	2	1	1	9
Nick Martinelli	F	20	3-5	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	6
Blake Preston	Forward	8	1-2	0-0	1-2	2	1	0	0	3
Jordan Clayton	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

74.8Possessions74.8

121.7Offensive Efficiency128.3

128.3Defensive Efficiency121.7

-6.7Net Efficiency6.7

48.0%Effective FG%63.0%

52.1%True Shooting %63.9%

13.1%Turnover Rate6.8%

31.6%Free Throw Rate18.8%

31.6%3-Point Rate26.1%

1.40Assist / Turnover3.20

Game Summary

Northwestern won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 74.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.