Auburn

21-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

14.3%Auburn

85.7%Iowa State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIowa State -13.9

PROJECTED TOTAL157.6

MODEL MONEYLINEIowa State -599

Iowa State

28-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAuburn 72

Projected Total157.6

Projected ScoreIowa State 86

Team Comparison

AuburnMetricIowa State

64.4MMH Power Index75.9

118.8Offensive Efficiency119.3

113.0Defensive Efficiency96.0

5.8Net Efficiency23.3

7.5Strength of Schedule4.9

8.0Last 10 Net Efficiency17.5

69.8Tempo68.4

53.1%Effective FG%56.1%

14.5%Turnover Rate15.0%

36.5%Offensive Rebound %35.5%

43.8%Free Throw Rate35.2%

4.1Average Margin15.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Iowa State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY85.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIowa State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (75.9–64.4), offensive efficiency (119.3–118.8), defensive efficiency (96.0–113.0), net efficiency (23.3–5.8).

Auburn COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (7.5–4.9), ball security (14.5–15.0), offensive rebounding (36.5–35.5).

Final

Auburn

83—81

Iowa State

Auburn by 2 • 71.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

AuburnTEAM STATIowa State

28-59FG25-53

47.0%FG%47.0%

9-273PT7-18

33.0%3PT%39.0%

18-22FT24-29

82.0%FT%83.0%

35Rebounds27

10Offensive Rebounds5

14Assists12

12Turnovers9

7Steals9

4Blocks—

23Fouls18

Player Box Score

Auburn

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johni Broome	Forward	36	7-13	2-5	5-6	10	2	2	2	21
Chad Baker-Mazara	G	22	5-8	3-4	5-5	3	1	2	0	18
Tahaad Pettiford	G	19	5-10	2-5	2-2	2	1	1	0	14
Denver Jones	Guard	30	3-10	0-3	6-6	3	2	0	0	12
Miles Kelly	Guard	30	5-13	2-9	0-0	2	2	0	1	12
Chaney Johnson	Forward	11	2-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	4
Dylan Cardwell	Center	24	1-2	0-0	0-2	4	3	2	1	2
JP Pegues	Guard	13	0-0	0-0	0-1	1	0	0	0	0
Chris Moore	Forward	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	2	0	0	0
Ja'Heim Hudson	Forward	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Iowa State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Keshon Gilbert	Guard	21	8-10	1-2	6-7	1	2	1	23
Curtis Jones	Guard	29	4-11	2-6	4-4	5	3	1	14
Dishon Jackson	C	21	2-6	0-0	9-10	3	0	2	13
Milan Momcilovic	F	26	4-8	2-3	2-2	4	1	0	12
Joshua Jefferson	F	36	3-6	2-3	1-2	8	2	2	9
Tamin Lipsey	G	32	3-9	0-3	0-2	2	2	2	6
Brandton Chatfield	Forward	7	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	2
Nojus Indrusaitis	G	7	0-1	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	2
Nate Heise	G	21	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	2	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.2Possessions71.2

116.6Offensive Efficiency113.8

113.8Defensive Efficiency116.6

2.8Net Efficiency-2.8

55.1%Effective FG%53.8%

59.8%True Shooting %60.7%

16.8%Turnover Rate12.7%

37.3%Free Throw Rate54.7%

45.8%3-Point Rate34.0%

1.17Assist / Turnover1.33

Game Summary

Auburn won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 71.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.