Duke

35-3

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

79.1%Duke

20.9%North Carolina

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -7.8

PROJECTED TOTAL149.8

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -378

North Carolina

24-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreDuke 79

Projected Total149.8

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 71

Team Comparison

DukeMetricNorth Carolina

81.7MMH Power Index65.2

122.2Offensive Efficiency115.5

95.2Defensive Efficiency103.8

27.0Net Efficiency11.7

7.8Strength of Schedule7.6

18.7Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.8

66.8Tempo69.0

56.9%Effective FG%54.6%

15.9%Turnover Rate13.9%

38.2%Offensive Rebound %31.1%

39.0%Free Throw Rate38.1%

18.0Average Margin8.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–65.2), offensive efficiency (122.2–115.5), defensive efficiency (95.2–103.8), net efficiency (27.0–11.7).

North Carolina COUNTERS WITHball security (13.9–15.9).

Final

Duke

84—93

North Carolina

North Carolina by 9 • 76.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

DukeTEAM STATNorth Carolina

35-69FG33-66

50.7%FG%50.0%

5-193PT9-24

26.3%3PT%37.5%

9-11FT18-25

81.8%FT%72.0%

34Rebounds35

7Offensive Rebounds9

8Assists19

11Turnovers5

4Steals9

3Blocks3

18Fouls12

Player Box Score

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jared McCain	Guard	38	9-18	2-6	3-3	11	1	2	0	23
Kyle Filipowski	Forward	31	9-17	1-6	3-5	5	0	0	1	22
Jeremy Roach	Guard	37	9-16	2-5	0-0	3	2	0	0	20
Mark Mitchell	G	37	4-6	0-1	3-3	7	2	0	2	11
Caleb Foster	G	19	2-4	0-1	0-0	2	1	1	0	4
Tyrese Proctor	Guard	26	1-6	0-0	0-0	3	2	0	0	2
Ryan Young	Center	10	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
Sean Stewart	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Armando Bacot	Forward	36	10-13	0-0	5-7	10	5	0	0	25
Harrison Ingram	Forward	38	8-12	5-9	0-0	13	1	4	1	21
RJ Davis	Guard	38	5-14	2-3	5-6	2	5	1	0	17
Seth Trimble	G	19	5-9	0-2	0-0	2	2	1	0	10
Cormac Ryan	Guard	32	3-7	2-5	1-3	3	2	2	1	9
Elliot Cadeau	G	23	1-9	0-4	5-7	2	4	0	0	7
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	10	0-1	0-1	2-2	1	0	1	1	2
Jalen Washington	F	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

76.1Possessions76.1

110.4Offensive Efficiency122.2

122.2Defensive Efficiency110.4

-11.8Net Efficiency11.8

54.3%Effective FG%56.8%

56.6%True Shooting %59.7%

14.1%Turnover Rate6.8%

15.9%Free Throw Rate37.9%

27.5%3-Point Rate36.4%

0.73Assist / Turnover3.80

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 76.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.