Iowa State

28-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

80.0%Iowa State

20.0%Baylor

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIowa State -8.4

PROJECTED TOTAL155.0

MODEL MONEYLINEIowa State -400

Baylor

16-17

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIowa State 82

Projected Total155.0

Projected ScoreBaylor 73

Team Comparison

Iowa StateMetricBaylor

75.9MMH Power Index58.9

119.3Offensive Efficiency116.7

96.0Defensive Efficiency109.5

23.3Net Efficiency7.2

4.9Strength of Schedule4.0

17.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.2

68.4Tempo69.7

56.1%Effective FG%54.4%

15.0%Turnover Rate16.4%

35.5%Offensive Rebound %37.5%

35.2%Free Throw Rate34.8%

15.9Average Margin5.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Iowa State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIowa State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (75.9–58.9), offensive efficiency (119.3–116.7), defensive efficiency (96.0–109.5), net efficiency (23.3–7.2).

Baylor COUNTERS WITHoffensive rebounding (37.5–35.5).

Final

Iowa State

68—70

Baylor

Baylor by 2 • 65.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Iowa StateTEAM STATBaylor

22-56FG21-46

39.3%FG%45.7%

5-143PT12-23

35.7%3PT%52.2%

19-32FT16-23

59.4%FT%69.6%

31Rebounds36

16Offensive Rebounds13

10Assists14

11Turnovers20

10Steals8

5Blocks4

22Fouls23

Player Box Score

Iowa State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Keshon Gilbert	Guard	34	7-12	5-6	5-8	4	2	2	0	24
Curtis Jones	Guard	28	3-8	0-3	5-6	3	1	1	0	11
Milan Momcilovic	F	36	4-10	0-2	2-2	2	3	0	0	10
Tamin Lipsey	G	31	3-7	0-1	2-4	3	3	2	0	8
Hason Ward	Forward	20	1-3	0-0	1-2	4	1	1	4	3
Tre King	Forward	26	1-8	0-2	0-0	5	0	1	0	2
Demarion Watson	G	4	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Jackson Paveletzke	G	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Baylor

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
RayJ Dennis	Guard	34	6-10	4-6	2-3	7	1	1	0	18
Jayden Nunn	Guard	25	4-5	2-3	6-10	3	2	2	0	16
Jalen Bridges	Forward	34	4-7	4-5	2-2	4	2	3	0	14
Ja'Kobe Walter	Guard	31	2-10	1-6	2-2	6	3	1	0	7
Yves Missi	Center	20	2-5	0-0	2-2	2	1	1	4	6
Josh Ojianwuna	F	15	2-3	0-0	0-1	4	1	0	0	4
Langston Love	G	28	1-6	1-3	0-1	4	4	0	0	3
Caleb Lohner	Forward	6	0-0	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua	Forward	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Miro Little	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.1Possessions65.1

104.5Offensive Efficiency107.5

107.5Defensive Efficiency104.5

-3.1Net Efficiency3.1

43.8%Effective FG%58.7%

47.8%True Shooting %61.5%

16.6%Turnover Rate31.3%

57.1%Free Throw Rate50.0%

25.0%3-Point Rate50.0%

0.91Assist / Turnover0.70

Game Summary

Baylor won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 65.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, Turnover Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.