Dayton

25-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

25.0%Dayton

75.0%North Carolina

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorth Carolina -8.1

PROJECTED TOTAL148.7

MODEL MONEYLINENorth Carolina -300

North Carolina

24-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreDayton 70

Projected Total148.7

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 78

Team Comparison

DaytonMetricNorth Carolina

59.9MMH Power Index65.2

108.5Offensive Efficiency115.5

101.5Defensive Efficiency103.8

7.0Net Efficiency11.7

5.7Strength of Schedule7.6

6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.8

68.3Tempo69.0

52.0%Effective FG%54.6%

16.9%Turnover Rate13.9%

26.7%Offensive Rebound %31.1%

47.6%Free Throw Rate38.1%

4.8Average Margin8.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Carolina HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Carolina holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (65.2–59.9), offensive efficiency (115.5–108.5), net efficiency (11.7–7.0), strength of schedule (7.6–5.7).

Dayton COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.5–103.8), recent form (6.4–-1.8), free throw rate (47.6–38.1).

Final

Dayton

90—92

North Carolina

North Carolina by 2 • 77.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

DaytonTEAM STATNorth Carolina

32-74FG28-54

43.0%FG%52.0%

14-323PT9-23

44.0%3PT%39.0%

12-15FT27-34

80.0%FT%79.0%

35Rebounds37

13Offensive Rebounds8

19Assists11

10Turnovers15

6Steals6

1Blocks4

27Fouls20

Player Box Score

Dayton

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nate Santos	Forward	33	5-12	2-6	3-3	5	2	0	0	15
Amaël L'Etang	F	12	4-8	3-6	2-2	2	0	0	0	13
Malachi Smith	G	22	4-12	2-2	2-5	1	2	1	0	12
Enoch Cheeks	Guard	31	4-11	3-8	0-0	8	1	2	1	11
Posh Alexander	Guard	24	4-9	0-2	3-3	1	6	1	0	11
Zed Key	Forward	20	4-8	0-1	2-2	2	1	0	0	10
Javon Bennett	G	34	3-9	3-6	0-0	4	4	1	0	9
Isaac Jack	F	7	2-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	4
Hamad Mousa	G	10	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	2	1	0	3
Jaiun Simon	F	7	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	2

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
RJ Davis	Guard	36	8-19	4-10	10-11	7	5	1	0	30
Seth Trimble	G	33	10-14	2-5	5-5	10	1	0	1	27
Elliot Cadeau	G	32	2-4	0-1	6-8	3	5	1	1	10
Jalen Washington	C	24	4-6	0-0	1-3	5	0	0	2	9
Drake Powell	Guard	23	2-2	2-2	0-0	4	0	2	0	6
Ian Jackson	G	19	2-6	1-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	5
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	19	0-2	0-1	3-5	3	0	1	0	3
Cade Tyson	G	3	0-1	0-1	2-2	1	0	1	0	2
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
James Brown	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

77.7Possessions77.7

115.8Offensive Efficiency118.4

118.4Defensive Efficiency115.8

-2.6Net Efficiency2.6

52.7%Effective FG%60.2%

55.5%True Shooting %65.6%

12.8%Turnover Rate19.4%

20.3%Free Throw Rate63.0%

43.2%3-Point Rate42.6%

1.90Assist / Turnover0.73

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 77.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.