Illinois

28-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

55.9%Illinois

44.1%Michigan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois -0.5

PROJECTED TOTAL151.3

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois -127

Michigan State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois 76

Projected Total151.3

Projected ScoreMichigan State 75

Team Comparison

IllinoisMetricMichigan State

76.5MMH Power Index69.8

125.0Offensive Efficiency117.0

103.3Defensive Efficiency101.5

21.7Net Efficiency15.5

6.7Strength of Schedule7.2

12.7Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

66.5Tempo67.3

54.8%Effective FG%54.1%

13.1%Turnover Rate17.2%

39.3%Offensive Rebound %37.7%

33.8%Free Throw Rate36.6%

14.5Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (76.5–69.8), offensive efficiency (125.0–117.0), net efficiency (21.7–15.5), recent form (12.7–9.5).

Michigan State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.5–103.3), strength of schedule (7.2–6.7), free throw rate (36.6–33.8).

Final

Illinois

80—88

Michigan State

Michigan State by 8 • 69.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

IllinoisTEAM STATMichigan State

26-60FG29-55

43.3%FG%52.7%

11-303PT5-8

36.7%3PT%62.5%

17-20FT25-34

85.0%FT%73.5%

33Rebounds33

9Offensive Rebounds7

14Assists14

9Turnovers6

3Steals6

3Blocks2

24Fouls19

Player Box Score

Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Terrence Shannon Jr.	Not Available	39	7-19	2-9	12-13	7	1	0	0	28
Coleman Hawkins	Guard	33	5-12	2-7	2-2	3	7	2	0	14
Marcus Domask	Forward	37	4-8	3-5	1-2	4	2	0	2	12
Ty Rodgers	G	21	4-6	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	8
Justin Harmon	Guard	25	3-5	1-2	0-0	3	3	0	0	7
Luke Goode	Forward	23	2-5	2-5	0-1	7	0	0	1	6
Quincy Guerrier	Forward	14	1-3	1-2	0-0	5	0	1	0	3
Dain Dainja	Forward	7	0-2	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
AJ Hoggard	Guard	35	5-13	1-2	12-13	2	5	2	0	23
Malik Hall	Forward	36	7-9	1-1	7-9	5	0	0	0	22
Tyson Walker	Guard	34	7-15	1-1	4-7	2	3	2	0	19
Jaden Akins	Guard	32	4-7	2-3	0-0	6	2	1	1	10
Jaxon Kohler	F	13	2-3	0-0	0-2	4	1	0	1	4
Tre Holloman	G	9	2-3	0-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	4
Carson Cooper	C	22	1-2	0-0	1-2	5	3	0	0	3
Coen Carr	F	9	1-2	0-0	1-1	2	0	0	0	3
Mady Sissoko	Center	10	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.9Possessions69.9

114.4Offensive Efficiency125.9

125.9Defensive Efficiency114.4

-11.4Net Efficiency11.4

52.5%Effective FG%57.3%

57.6%True Shooting %61.8%

12.9%Turnover Rate8.6%

33.3%Free Throw Rate61.8%

50.0%3-Point Rate14.5%

1.56Assist / Turnover2.33

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 8 points. The game played at approximately 69.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.