Iowa State

28-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

78.1%Iowa State

21.9%Dayton

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIowa State -7.9

PROJECTED TOTAL146.2

MODEL MONEYLINEIowa State -357

Dayton

25-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIowa State 77

Projected Total146.2

Projected ScoreDayton 69

Team Comparison

Iowa StateMetricDayton

75.9MMH Power Index59.9

119.3Offensive Efficiency108.5

96.0Defensive Efficiency101.5

23.3Net Efficiency7.0

4.9Strength of Schedule5.7

17.5Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

68.4Tempo68.3

56.1%Effective FG%52.0%

15.0%Turnover Rate16.9%

35.5%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

35.2%Free Throw Rate47.6%

15.9Average Margin4.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Iowa State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY78.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIowa State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (75.9–59.9), offensive efficiency (119.3–108.5), defensive efficiency (96.0–101.5), net efficiency (23.3–7.0).

Dayton COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (5.7–4.9), free throw rate (47.6–35.2).

Final

Iowa State

89—84

Dayton

Iowa State by 5 • 68.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Iowa StateTEAM STATDayton

30-58FG29-50

52.0%FG%58.0%

4-173PT7-18

24.0%3PT%39.0%

25-29FT19-26

86.0%FT%73.0%

25Rebounds28

8Offensive Rebounds7

11Assists17

7Turnovers11

7Steals3

2Blocks3

21Fouls23

Player Box Score

Iowa State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Keshon Gilbert	Guard	36	6-8	0-0	12-14	3	3	3	0	24
Curtis Jones	Guard	31	6-13	3-6	4-4	2	1	0	0	19
Dishon Jackson	C	21	5-9	0-0	2-2	6	0	1	0	12
Milan Momcilovic	F	24	4-9	1-4	1-1	1	0	0	0	10
Joshua Jefferson	F	26	2-5	0-3	3-3	3	3	1	2	7
Tamin Lipsey	G	16	2-4	0-1	2-2	0	2	1	0	6
Brandton Chatfield	Forward	19	2-2	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	0	5
Nojus Indrusaitis	G	12	2-6	0-2	0-1	2	1	1	0	4
Nate Heise	G	15	1-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	2

Dayton

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Malachi Smith	G	31	7-9	2-3	6-9	3	9	0	0	22
Enoch Cheeks	Guard	28	5-8	3-6	3-4	6	0	0	0	16
Zed Key	Forward	25	6-7	0-0	3-3	4	0	0	1	15
Nate Santos	Forward	31	4-13	2-6	2-2	4	1	0	0	12
Javon Bennett	G	27	3-5	0-1	1-2	2	1	1	0	7
Hamad Mousa	G	12	1-1	0-0	2-2	1	2	0	0	4
Posh Alexander	Guard	22	1-4	0-1	1-2	4	2	1	0	3
Amaël L'Etang	F	12	1-2	0-1	1-2	0	2	0	2	3
Isaac Jack	F	6	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Jaiun Simon	F	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.6Possessions68.6

129.7Offensive Efficiency122.4

122.4Defensive Efficiency129.7

7.3Net Efficiency-7.3

55.2%Effective FG%65.0%

62.0%True Shooting %67.4%

9.9%Turnover Rate16.6%

50.0%Free Throw Rate52.0%

29.3%3-Point Rate36.0%

1.57Assist / Turnover1.55

Game Summary

Iowa State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 68.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.