Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

64.4%Illinois State

35.6%Indiana State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -3.5

PROJECTED TOTAL146.6

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -181

Indiana State

11-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 75

Projected Total146.6

Projected ScoreIndiana State 72

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricIndiana State

54.3MMH Power Index44.4

110.6Offensive Efficiency104.7

101.4Defensive Efficiency106.0

9.2Net Efficiency-1.3

1.0Strength of Schedule0.1

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-5.2

67.5Tempo70.3

54.3%Effective FG%53.6%

16.8%Turnover Rate19.5%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %27.3%

32.0%Free Throw Rate28.8%

6.2Average Margin-0.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY64.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

11–0

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–44.4), offensive efficiency (110.6–104.7), defensive efficiency (101.4–106.0), net efficiency (9.2–-1.3).

Final

Illinois State

80—67

Indiana State

Illinois State by 13 • 71.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATIndiana State

29-56FG24-66

51.8%FG%36.4%

4-163PT8-38

25.0%3PT%21.1%

18-25FT11-12

72.0%FT%91.7%

38Rebounds34

7Offensive Rebounds11

8Assists11

12Turnovers9

3Steals7

2Blocks3

14Fouls21

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	38	10-12	2-3	9-11	4	1	1	0	31
Myles Foster	Forward	35	8-13	0-0	3-3	12	3	0	0	19
Luke Kasubke	Guard	22	3-4	2-2	2-3	0	0	0	0	10
Dalton Banks	Guard	37	3-12	0-7	1-4	4	2	0	1	7
Kendall Lewis	Forward	31	2-4	0-0	2-3	13	1	1	0	6
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	25	2-6	0-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	4
Chase Walker	F	7	1-3	0-0	1-1	2	0	1	1	3
Ty Pence	G	5	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Indiana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Julian Larry	Guard	36	7-17	1-5	5-6	4	4	2	0	20
Isaiah Swope	Guard	36	6-15	4-13	2-2	4	3	1	0	18
Ryan Conwell	G	36	4-11	2-9	0-0	3	0	0	1	10
Jake Wolfe	Guard	17	3-4	1-2	0-0	4	0	1	0	7
Robbie Avila	C	37	2-10	0-5	2-2	7	2	2	2	6
Jayson Kent	Forward	17	2-5	0-1	0-0	8	0	0	0	4
Xavier Bledson	Guard	14	0-4	0-3	2-2	1	2	1	0	2
Masen Miller	Guard	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Aaron Gray	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.3Possessions71.3

112.2Offensive Efficiency94.0

94.0Defensive Efficiency112.2

18.2Net Efficiency-18.2

55.4%Effective FG%42.4%

58.9%True Shooting %46.7%

16.5%Turnover Rate12.9%

44.6%Free Throw Rate18.2%

28.6%3-Point Rate57.6%

0.67Assist / Turnover1.22

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 71.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.