Indiana State

11-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

16.2%Indiana State

83.8%Southern Illinois

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSouthern Illinois -11.1

PROJECTED TOTAL146.2

MODEL MONEYLINESouthern Illinois -517

Southern Illinois

16-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIndiana State 68

Projected Total146.2

Projected ScoreSouthern Illinois 79

Team Comparison

Indiana StateMetricSouthern Illinois

44.4MMH Power Index54.6

104.7Offensive Efficiency103.4

106.0Defensive Efficiency98.5

-1.3Net Efficiency4.9

0.1Strength of Schedule1.6

-5.2Last 10 Net Efficiency7.7

70.3Tempo70.6

53.6%Effective FG%49.5%

19.5%Turnover Rate17.0%

27.3%Offensive Rebound %31.1%

28.8%Free Throw Rate32.3%

-0.9Average Margin3.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Southern Illinois HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY83.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSouthern Illinois holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.6–44.4), defensive efficiency (98.5–106.0), net efficiency (4.9–-1.3), strength of schedule (1.6–0.1).

Indiana State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (104.7–103.4), shooting efficiency (53.6–49.5).

Final

Indiana State

69—74

Southern Illinois

Southern Illinois by 5 • 71.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Indiana StateTEAM STATSouthern Illinois

23-52FG28-61

44.2%FG%45.9%

7-253PT6-27

28.0%3PT%22.2%

16-18FT12-14

88.9%FT%85.7%

34Rebounds29

4Offensive Rebounds4

14Assists13

16Turnovers7

3Steals10

2Blocks6

17Fouls18

Player Box Score

Indiana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Robbie Avila	C	37	12-18	3-6	3-4	6	2	0	2	30
Ryan Conwell	G	36	3-8	2-5	8-8	5	1	2	0	16
Julian Larry	Guard	33	3-10	1-5	0-0	5	5	1	0	7
Isaiah Swope	Guard	40	2-10	0-6	2-2	4	2	0	0	6
Jake Wolfe	Guard	26	2-2	1-1	0-0	7	3	0	0	5
Xavier Bledson	Guard	23	1-3	0-1	3-4	4	1	0	0	5
Aaron Gray	Forward	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Derek Vorst	C	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Southern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Xavier Johnson	Guard	40	7-18	1-8	6-6	8	6	1	0	21
Troy D'Amico	Forward	40	5-13	1-7	4-4	1	4	1	1	15
Kennard Davis Jr.	G	26	5-7	2-4	0-0	5	2	3	0	12
AJ Ferguson	Guard	31	4-9	0-2	1-2	8	0	4	0	9
Clarence Rupert	Forward	20	2-3	1-1	1-2	2	0	0	1	6
Scottie Ebube	C	17	3-4	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	1	6
Trent Brown	Guard	19	1-6	1-5	0-0	0	0	1	1	3
Jarrett Hensley	Forward	7	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	2	2

Advanced Game Stats

71.7Possessions71.7

96.2Offensive Efficiency103.2

103.2Defensive Efficiency96.2

-7.0Net Efficiency7.0

51.0%Effective FG%50.8%

57.0%True Shooting %54.7%

22.1%Turnover Rate9.9%

34.6%Free Throw Rate23.0%

48.1%3-Point Rate44.3%

0.88Assist / Turnover1.86

Game Summary

Southern Illinois won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 71.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.