North Carolina

24-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

28.5%North Carolina

71.5%Virginia

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -7.1

PROJECTED TOTAL152.4

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -251

Virginia

30-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 73

Projected Total152.4

Projected ScoreVirginia 80

Team Comparison

North CarolinaMetricVirginia

65.2MMH Power Index68.9

115.5Offensive Efficiency119.0

103.8Defensive Efficiency101.8

11.7Net Efficiency17.2

7.6Strength of Schedule5.2

-1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

69.0Tempo67.6

54.6%Effective FG%55.0%

13.9%Turnover Rate16.0%

31.1%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

38.1%Free Throw Rate33.2%

8.1Average Margin11.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY71.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–65.2), offensive efficiency (119.0–115.5), defensive efficiency (101.8–103.8), net efficiency (17.2–11.7).

North Carolina COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (7.6–5.2), ball security (13.9–16.0), free throw rate (38.1–33.2).

Final

North Carolina

54—44

Virginia

North Carolina by 10 • 60.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North CarolinaTEAM STATVirginia

16-50FG16-58

32.0%FG%27.6%

7-223PT2-14

31.8%3PT%14.3%

15-19FT10-15

78.9%FT%66.7%

43Rebounds39

9Offensive Rebounds11

11Assists5

10Turnovers6

2Steals5

10Blocks7

18Fouls17

Player Box Score

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cormac Ryan	Guard	34	6-12	6-11	0-0	1	0	0	1	18
RJ Davis	Guard	37	1-14	1-8	9-10	4	1	1	2	12
Armando Bacot	Forward	27	4-7	0-0	2-2	13	2	0	2	10
Harrison Ingram	Forward	34	3-6	0-1	1-3	10	1	1	0	7
Elliot Cadeau	G	27	2-8	0-2	0-0	2	6	0	0	4
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	12	0-1	0-0	2-2	5	0	0	1	2
Jalen Washington	F	12	0-1	0-0	1-2	6	0	0	4	1
Seth Trimble	G	14	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
Paxson Wojcik	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
James Okonkwo	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jordan Minor	Forward	25	5-9	0-0	2-3	10	0	0	1	12
Reece Beekman	Guard	37	4-14	0-1	2-2	7	5	1	1	10
Isaac McKneely	G	35	2-9	1-5	2-2	1	0	0	0	7
Elijah Gertrude	G	19	1-7	0-2	4-8	3	0	2	0	6
Andrew Rohde	G	15	1-4	1-4	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Ryan Dunn	Forward	24	1-5	0-1	0-0	4	0	0	3	2
Blake Buchanan	F	15	1-3	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	2
Dante Harris	G	9	1-4	0-0	0-0	4	0	2	0	2
Jacob Groves	Forward	19	0-3	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	1	0
Taine Murray	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

60.1Possessions60.1

89.9Offensive Efficiency73.2

73.2Defensive Efficiency89.9

16.6Net Efficiency-16.6

39.0%Effective FG%29.3%

45.7%True Shooting %33.8%

16.7%Turnover Rate10.0%

38.0%Free Throw Rate25.9%

44.0%3-Point Rate24.1%

1.10Assist / Turnover0.83

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 60.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.