Michigan State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

29.2%Michigan State

70.8%Purdue

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADPurdue -5.7

PROJECTED TOTAL151.6

MODEL MONEYLINEPurdue -242

Purdue

30-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMichigan State 73

Projected Total151.6

Projected ScorePurdue 79

Team Comparison

Michigan StateMetricPurdue

69.8MMH Power Index73.2

117.0Offensive Efficiency124.8

101.5Defensive Efficiency107.8

15.5Net Efficiency17.0

7.2Strength of Schedule7.6

9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency11.8

67.3Tempo65.4

54.1%Effective FG%57.8%

17.2%Turnover Rate13.7%

37.7%Offensive Rebound %36.2%

36.6%Free Throw Rate29.1%

10.5Average Margin11.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Purdue HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMPurdue holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (73.2–69.8), offensive efficiency (124.8–117.0), net efficiency (17.0–15.5), strength of schedule (7.6–7.2).

Michigan State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.5–107.8), offensive rebounding (37.7–36.2), free throw rate (36.6–29.1).

Final

Michigan State

74—80

Purdue

Purdue by 6 • 66.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Michigan StateTEAM STATPurdue

25-64FG25-49

39.1%FG%51.0%

9-213PT10-20

42.9%3PT%50.0%

15-17FT20-30

88.2%FT%66.7%

33Rebounds36

11Offensive Rebounds8

11Assists15

7Turnovers9

6Steals4

3Blocks4

25Fouls17

Player Box Score

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyson Walker	Guard	36	5-15	1-2	3-3	7	4	1	0	14
Jaden Akins	Guard	26	4-9	1-3	4-4	3	1	1	1	13
Malik Hall	Forward	34	4-8	2-3	2-2	4	2	1	1	12
Xavier Booker	C	12	3-6	2-5	3-3	2	0	0	0	11
AJ Hoggard	Guard	32	3-13	1-2	1-3	3	4	3	1	8
Tre Holloman	G	18	3-7	2-4	0-0	1	0	0	0	8
Carson Cooper	C	16	2-2	0-0	2-2	5	0	0	0	6
Jaxon Kohler	F	11	1-3	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Coen Carr	F	9	0-1	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Mady Sissoko	Center	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Purdue

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Zach Edey	Center	37	9-15	0-0	14-20	11	4	0	2	32
Braden Smith	G	40	8-11	4-4	3-4	9	3	1	0	23
Fletcher Loyer	G	31	5-9	4-6	1-2	1	3	0	1	15
Mason Gillis	Forward	26	2-4	2-4	1-2	1	4	0	0	7
Trey Kaufman-Renn	F	14	1-3	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	1	2
Lance Jones	Guard	27	0-6	0-4	1-2	2	0	3	0	1
Camden Heide	F	18	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
Ethan Morton	Guard	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Caleb Furst	Forward	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.2Possessions66.2

111.8Offensive Efficiency120.8

120.8Defensive Efficiency111.8

-9.1Net Efficiency9.1

46.1%Effective FG%61.2%

51.3%True Shooting %63.2%

10.3%Turnover Rate14.0%

26.6%Free Throw Rate61.2%

32.8%3-Point Rate40.8%

1.57Assist / Turnover1.67

Game Summary

Purdue won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 66.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.