Michigan State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

50.1%Michigan State

49.9%North Carolina

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorth Carolina -0.8

PROJECTED TOTAL151.0

MODEL MONEYLINEMichigan State -100

North Carolina

24-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMichigan State 75

Projected Total151.0

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 76

Team Comparison

Michigan StateMetricNorth Carolina

69.8MMH Power Index65.2

117.0Offensive Efficiency115.5

101.5Defensive Efficiency103.8

15.5Net Efficiency11.7

7.2Strength of Schedule7.6

9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.8

67.3Tempo69.0

54.1%Effective FG%54.6%

17.2%Turnover Rate13.9%

37.7%Offensive Rebound %31.1%

36.6%Free Throw Rate38.1%

10.5Average Margin8.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Michigan State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY50.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMichigan State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.8–65.2), offensive efficiency (117.0–115.5), defensive efficiency (101.5–103.8), net efficiency (15.5–11.7).

North Carolina COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (7.6–7.2), shooting efficiency (54.6–54.1), ball security (13.9–17.2).

Final

Michigan State

94—91

North Carolina

Michigan State by 3 • 79.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Michigan StateTEAM STATNorth Carolina

33-61FG32-64

54.0%FG%50.0%

4-163PT11-23

25.0%3PT%48.0%

24-31FT16-21

77.0%FT%76.0%

37Rebounds29

8Offensive Rebounds5

16Assists17

12Turnovers11

7Steals8

4Blocks4

19Fouls23

Player Box Score

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tre Holloman	G	36	5-9	3-6	6-6	2	7	3	0	19
Jaden Akins	Guard	35	6-13	0-3	2-2	3	1	0	1	14
Coen Carr	F	32	6-8	0-0	2-5	7	0	1	1	14
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	32	2-6	0-0	9-11	4	6	2	0	13
Frankie Fidler	Forward	27	5-6	1-2	2-2	3	1	1	0	13
Xavier Booker	F	24	5-7	0-1	2-2	7	0	0	1	12
Carson Cooper	C	16	3-3	0-0	0-1	2	1	0	1	6
Jaxon Kohler	F	13	1-7	0-2	1-2	5	0	0	0	3
Szymon Zapala	Center	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Kur Teng	G	2	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Drake Powell	Guard	33	7-9	4-6	0-0	1	1	0	1	18
Elliot Cadeau	G	34	5-10	2-4	5-5	3	6	1	0	17
RJ Davis	Guard	37	6-18	2-6	2-3	3	7	3	0	16
Ian Jackson	G	21	5-8	2-4	2-4	4	0	0	0	14
Seth Trimble	G	37	3-9	1-2	2-3	2	3	4	1	9
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	12	3-3	0-0	3-4	3	0	0	0	9
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	33	3-6	0-1	2-2	4	0	0	0	8
Jalen Washington	C	13	0-1	0-0	0-0	7	0	0	2	0
Ty Claude	Forward	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Cade Tyson	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

79.9Possessions79.9

117.6Offensive Efficiency113.9

113.9Defensive Efficiency117.6

3.8Net Efficiency-3.8

57.4%Effective FG%58.6%

62.1%True Shooting %61.5%

15.1%Turnover Rate13.8%

50.8%Free Throw Rate32.8%

26.2%3-Point Rate35.9%

1.33Assist / Turnover1.55

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 79.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.