NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

25.4%NC State

74.6%North Carolina

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorth Carolina -7.2

PROJECTED TOTAL158.6

MODEL MONEYLINENorth Carolina -294

North Carolina

24-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 76

Projected Total158.6

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 83

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricNorth Carolina

60.1MMH Power Index65.2

118.4Offensive Efficiency115.5

108.6Defensive Efficiency103.8

9.8Net Efficiency11.7

6.4Strength of Schedule7.6

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.8

70.2Tempo69.0

55.1%Effective FG%54.6%

13.1%Turnover Rate13.9%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %31.1%

35.7%Free Throw Rate38.1%

6.9Average Margin8.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Carolina HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY74.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Carolina holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (65.2–60.1), defensive efficiency (103.8–108.6), net efficiency (11.7–9.8), strength of schedule (7.6–6.4).

NC State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (118.4–115.5), shooting efficiency (55.1–54.6), ball security (13.1–13.9).

Final

NC State

70—79

North Carolina

North Carolina by 9 • 68.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATNorth Carolina

25-60FG25-53

41.7%FG%47.2%

9-193PT6-16

47.4%3PT%37.5%

11-16FT23-27

68.8%FT%85.2%

31Rebounds34

9Offensive Rebounds5

9Assists13

9Turnovers8

3Steals4

3Blocks2

21Fouls13

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jayden Taylor	Guard	28	6-10	5-7	5-6	1	0	0	0	22
DJ Horne	Guard	39	8-19	2-4	2-4	3	2	2	0	20
Casey Morsell	Guard	26	4-10	0-1	1-2	4	3	0	1	9
Michael O'Connell	Guard	26	2-7	1-3	2-2	5	0	0	0	7
DJ Burns	Forward	17	3-9	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	6
Mohamed Diarra	Forward	33	1-4	1-4	1-2	8	0	0	1	4
Dennis Parker Jr.	G	7	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	23	0-0	0-0	0-0	5	2	1	1	0
Breon Pass	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Harrison Ingram	Forward	36	8-14	2-5	4-4	6	0	2	0	22
Elliot Cadeau	G	31	5-7	1-1	4-5	4	7	1	0	15
RJ Davis	Guard	36	4-11	2-5	4-5	7	5	0	1	14
Armando Bacot	Forward	34	4-12	0-0	5-5	7	0	0	0	13
Cormac Ryan	Guard	30	1-3	1-3	2-2	2	0	0	1	5
Seth Trimble	G	15	1-2	0-1	2-4	0	1	1	0	4
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	10	2-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	4
Jalen Washington	F	6	0-0	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Paxson Wojcik	Guard	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.2Possessions68.2

102.6Offensive Efficiency115.8

115.8Defensive Efficiency102.6

-13.2Net Efficiency13.2

49.2%Effective FG%52.8%

51.8%True Shooting %60.0%

13.3%Turnover Rate11.6%

26.7%Free Throw Rate50.9%

31.7%3-Point Rate30.2%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.63

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 68.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.