North Carolina

24-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

8.7%North Carolina

91.3%Duke

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -16.0

PROJECTED TOTAL149.8

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -1049

Duke

35-3

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 67

Projected Total149.8

Projected ScoreDuke 83

Team Comparison

North CarolinaMetricDuke

65.2MMH Power Index81.7

115.5Offensive Efficiency122.2

103.8Defensive Efficiency95.2

11.7Net Efficiency27.0

7.6Strength of Schedule7.8

-1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency18.7

69.0Tempo66.8

54.6%Effective FG%56.9%

13.9%Turnover Rate15.9%

31.1%Offensive Rebound %38.2%

38.1%Free Throw Rate39.0%

8.1Average Margin18.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY91.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–65.2), offensive efficiency (122.2–115.5), defensive efficiency (95.2–103.8), net efficiency (27.0–11.7).

North Carolina COUNTERS WITHball security (13.9–15.9).

Final

North Carolina

84—79

Duke

North Carolina by 5 • 71.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North CarolinaTEAM STATDuke

31-62FG26-60

50.0%FG%43.3%

7-153PT9-23

46.7%3PT%39.1%

15-18FT18-24

83.3%FT%75.0%

39Rebounds28

12Offensive Rebounds8

11Assists10

13Turnovers7

6Steals6

3Blocks6

17Fouls16

Player Box Score

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cormac Ryan	Guard	34	8-12	6-8	9-10	2	1	1	0	31
Harrison Ingram	Forward	35	5-12	0-2	4-5	10	2	1	1	14
RJ Davis	Guard	37	4-12	1-3	0-0	2	3	0	0	9
Armando Bacot	Forward	34	4-11	0-0	1-1	8	3	0	1	9
Elliot Cadeau	G	21	3-4	0-0	1-2	3	1	2	0	7
Seth Trimble	G	20	3-5	0-0	0-0	4	1	2	0	6
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	11	3-4	0-1	0-0	8	0	0	1	6
Jalen Washington	F	6	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Paxson Wojcik	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kyle Filipowski	Forward	34	8-18	2-6	5-8	7	2	2	3	23
Jared McCain	Guard	38	6-12	2-5	5-5	7	2	1	0	19
Tyrese Proctor	Guard	40	6-11	2-6	0-0	2	3	2	0	14
Jeremy Roach	Guard	39	3-12	2-4	5-6	0	3	0	0	13
TJ Power	F	4	2-2	1-1	2-3	0	0	0	1	7
Mark Mitchell	G	19	1-3	0-1	1-2	4	0	0	1	3
Ryan Young	Center	19	0-2	0-0	0-0	6	0	1	0	0
Sean Stewart	F	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.0Possessions71.0

118.3Offensive Efficiency111.3

111.3Defensive Efficiency118.3

7.0Net Efficiency-7.0

55.6%Effective FG%50.8%

59.5%True Shooting %55.3%

18.2%Turnover Rate9.9%

29.0%Free Throw Rate40.0%

24.2%3-Point Rate38.3%

0.85Assist / Turnover1.43

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 71.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.