Gonzaga

31-4

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

53.1%Gonzaga

46.9%Saint Mary's

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADGonzaga -0.9

PROJECTED TOTAL147.3

MODEL MONEYLINEGonzaga -113

Saint Mary's

27-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreGonzaga 74

Projected Total147.3

Projected ScoreSaint Mary's 73

Team Comparison

GonzagaMetricSaint Mary's

76.4MMH Power Index70.7

119.7Offensive Efficiency116.7

94.0Defensive Efficiency97.4

25.7Net Efficiency19.3

3.0Strength of Schedule3.0

18.2Last 10 Net Efficiency18.6

70.4Tempo66.3

55.7%Effective FG%53.1%

13.6%Turnover Rate16.6%

35.0%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

31.5%Free Throw Rate36.8%

18.1Average Margin12.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Gonzaga HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY53.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMGonzaga holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (76.4–70.7), offensive efficiency (119.7–116.7), defensive efficiency (94.0–97.4), net efficiency (25.7–19.3).

Saint Mary's COUNTERS WITHrecent form (18.6–18.2), offensive rebounding (37.4–35.0), free throw rate (36.8–31.5).

Final

Gonzaga

60—69

Saint Mary's

Saint Mary's by 9 • 62.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

GonzagaTEAM STATSaint Mary's

24-54FG24-51

44.4%FG%47.1%

2-113PT6-15

18.2%3PT%40.0%

10-14FT15-22

71.4%FT%68.2%

22Rebounds39

5Offensive Rebounds12

17Assists15

7Turnovers13

5Steals6

4Blocks2

18Fouls14

Player Box Score

Gonzaga

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Anton Watson	Forward	40	6-14	0-2	6-8	7	3	0	0	18
Ryan Nembhard	Guard	40	6-14	1-3	0-0	2	11	2	0	13
Graham Ike	F	19	5-12	0-0	0-1	5	1	0	0	10
Ben Gregg	Forward	38	3-4	1-2	2-3	3	1	2	1	9
Nolan Hickman	Guard	36	3-8	0-3	0-0	1	1	0	0	6
Braden Huff	F	11	1-2	0-1	2-2	1	0	0	1	4
Dusty Stromer	G	16	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	2	0

Saint Mary's

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Aidan Mahaney	G	40	9-15	5-7	0-0	2	1	1	0	23
Mitchell Saxen	Center	36	6-15	0-0	7-12	15	2	2	0	19
Augustas Marciulionis	Guard	40	5-11	1-3	2-2	4	8	2	2	13
Mason Forbes	Forward	35	3-3	0-0	2-4	5	1	1	0	8
Alex Ducas	Guard	36	1-3	0-2	4-4	8	2	0	0	6
Luke Barrett	Forward	13	0-4	0-3	0-0	3	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.6Possessions62.6

95.8Offensive Efficiency110.2

110.2Defensive Efficiency95.8

-14.4Net Efficiency14.4

46.3%Effective FG%52.9%

49.5%True Shooting %56.1%

11.2%Turnover Rate20.8%

25.9%Free Throw Rate43.1%

20.4%3-Point Rate29.4%

2.43Assist / Turnover1.15

Game Summary

Saint Mary's won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 62.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.