NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

5.1%NC State

94.9%Duke

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -19.1

PROJECTED TOTAL154.8

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -1861

Duke

35-3

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 68

Projected Total154.8

Projected ScoreDuke 87

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricDuke

60.1MMH Power Index81.7

118.4Offensive Efficiency122.2

108.6Defensive Efficiency95.2

9.8Net Efficiency27.0

6.4Strength of Schedule7.8

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency18.7

70.2Tempo66.8

55.1%Effective FG%56.9%

13.1%Turnover Rate15.9%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %38.2%

35.7%Free Throw Rate39.0%

6.9Average Margin18.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY94.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–60.1), offensive efficiency (122.2–118.4), defensive efficiency (95.2–108.6), net efficiency (27.0–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHball security (13.1–15.9).

Final

NC State

74—69

Duke

NC State by 5 • 69.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATDuke

28-61FG28-65

45.9%FG%43.1%

7-163PT5-20

43.8%3PT%25.0%

11-20FT8-14

55.0%FT%57.1%

35Rebounds39

9Offensive Rebounds12

14Assists15

9Turnovers9

7Steals5

6Blocks2

13Fouls19

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
DJ Horne	Guard	36	7-13	2-6	2-5	4	0	0	0	18
Mohamed Diarra	Forward	37	5-9	1-4	3-7	16	2	3	4	14
Michael O'Connell	Guard	35	5-7	2-2	0-0	2	4	0	0	12
Casey Morsell	Guard	24	5-11	0-1	1-1	1	0	1	0	11
DJ Burns	Forward	26	4-11	0-0	2-3	3	4	1	1	10
Jayden Taylor	Guard	25	2-7	2-3	0-0	3	2	0	0	6
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	16	0-3	0-0	3-4	4	2	2	1	3
Breon Pass	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kyle Filipowski	Forward	34	13-20	0-1	2-3	14	1	3	0	28
Mark Mitchell	G	35	8-13	2-2	0-4	8	1	1	1	18
Tyrese Proctor	Guard	40	4-16	2-7	0-0	7	5	0	0	10
Jared McCain	Guard	34	2-6	0-3	4-5	3	4	1	0	8
Jeremy Roach	Guard	38	1-6	1-4	2-2	2	4	0	0	5
TJ Power	F	8	0-3	0-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Ryan Young	Center	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0
Sean Stewart	F	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.6Possessions69.6

106.3Offensive Efficiency99.1

99.1Defensive Efficiency106.3

7.2Net Efficiency-7.2

51.6%Effective FG%46.9%

52.5%True Shooting %48.2%

12.8%Turnover Rate13.1%

32.8%Free Throw Rate21.5%

26.2%3-Point Rate30.8%

1.56Assist / Turnover1.67

Game Summary

NC State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 69.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.