Michigan State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

29.2%Michigan State

70.8%Purdue

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADPurdue -5.7

PROJECTED TOTAL151.6

MODEL MONEYLINEPurdue -242

Purdue

30-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMichigan State 73

Projected Total151.6

Projected ScorePurdue 79

Team Comparison

Michigan StateMetricPurdue

69.8MMH Power Index73.2

117.0Offensive Efficiency124.8

101.5Defensive Efficiency107.8

15.5Net Efficiency17.0

7.2Strength of Schedule7.6

9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency11.8

67.3Tempo65.4

54.1%Effective FG%57.8%

17.2%Turnover Rate13.7%

37.7%Offensive Rebound %36.2%

36.6%Free Throw Rate29.1%

10.5Average Margin11.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Purdue HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMPurdue holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (73.2–69.8), offensive efficiency (124.8–117.0), net efficiency (17.0–15.5), strength of schedule (7.6–7.2).

Michigan State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.5–107.8), offensive rebounding (37.7–36.2), free throw rate (36.6–29.1).

Final

Michigan State

62—67

Purdue

Purdue by 5 • 65.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Michigan StateTEAM STATPurdue

24-61FG22-53

39.3%FG%41.5%

4-183PT5-14

22.2%3PT%35.7%

10-12FT18-27

83.3%FT%66.7%

37Rebounds36

14Offensive Rebounds12

15Assists19

13Turnovers11

4Steals7

8Blocks3

29Fouls17

Player Box Score

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyson Walker	Guard	34	6-18	3-7	0-0	2	1	0	1	15
Malik Hall	Forward	32	5-11	0-2	2-2	7	3	2	1	12
Tre Holloman	G	25	3-5	1-2	3-3	4	1	1	1	10
AJ Hoggard	Guard	29	3-8	0-1	2-3	4	10	0	1	8
Jaden Akins	Guard	24	2-11	0-4	0-0	4	0	0	1	4
Carson Cooper	C	18	2-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	4
Jaxon Kohler	F	8	2-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	4
Mady Sissoko	Center	10	1-2	0-0	0-0	7	0	0	0	2
Coen Carr	F	8	0-0	0-0	2-2	2	0	1	1	2
Xavier Booker	C	12	0-2	0-2	1-2	1	0	0	1	1

Purdue

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Zach Edey	Center	35	10-16	0-0	9-14	12	4	0	2	29
Lance Jones	Guard	34	2-7	1-5	5-7	4	0	3	0	10
Mason Gillis	Forward	27	2-5	2-5	2-2	3	5	0	0	8
Fletcher Loyer	G	37	2-6	1-1	0-0	1	1	1	0	5
Braden Smith	G	26	2-7	1-1	0-0	4	8	0	1	5
Myles Colvin	G	8	2-3	0-1	1-2	2	0	0	0	5
Camden Heide	F	14	1-3	0-1	0-0	1	0	2	0	2
Ethan Morton	Guard	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Trey Kaufman-Renn	F	14	0-4	0-0	1-2	3	0	1	0	1
Caleb Furst	Forward	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.3Possessions65.3

94.9Offensive Efficiency102.6

102.6Defensive Efficiency94.9

-7.7Net Efficiency7.7

42.6%Effective FG%46.2%

46.5%True Shooting %50.9%

19.8%Turnover Rate17.0%

19.7%Free Throw Rate50.9%

29.5%3-Point Rate26.4%

1.15Assist / Turnover1.73

Game Summary

Purdue won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 65.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.