NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

25.4%NC State

74.6%North Carolina

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorth Carolina -7.2

PROJECTED TOTAL158.6

MODEL MONEYLINENorth Carolina -294

North Carolina

24-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 76

Projected Total158.6

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 83

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricNorth Carolina

60.1MMH Power Index65.2

118.4Offensive Efficiency115.5

108.6Defensive Efficiency103.8

9.8Net Efficiency11.7

6.4Strength of Schedule7.6

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.8

70.2Tempo69.0

55.1%Effective FG%54.6%

13.1%Turnover Rate13.9%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %31.1%

35.7%Free Throw Rate38.1%

6.9Average Margin8.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Carolina HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY74.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Carolina holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (65.2–60.1), defensive efficiency (103.8–108.6), net efficiency (11.7–9.8), strength of schedule (7.6–6.4).

NC State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (118.4–115.5), shooting efficiency (55.1–54.6), ball security (13.1–13.9).

Final

NC State

84—76

North Carolina

NC State by 8 • 73.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATNorth Carolina

28-51FG25-67

54.9%FG%37.3%

6-143PT8-30

42.9%3PT%26.7%

22-29FT18-23

75.9%FT%78.3%

33Rebounds38

2Offensive Rebounds11

13Assists17

10Turnovers8

6Steals6

4Blocks2

18Fouls19

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
DJ Horne	Guard	32	9-15	2-6	9-11	4	1	0	0	29
DJ Burns	Forward	28	9-12	1-1	1-2	4	7	0	0	20
Mohamed Diarra	Forward	31	3-5	1-1	4-4	14	0	3	3	11
Michael O'Connell	Guard	36	2-7	1-3	5-6	4	2	0	0	10
Casey Morsell	Guard	34	3-8	1-3	1-2	3	1	3	1	8
Jayden Taylor	Guard	22	1-2	0-0	1-2	0	1	0	0	3
Ernest Ross	Forward	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	12	0-1	0-0	1-2	2	1	0	0	1
Breon Pass	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
RJ Davis	Guard	36	10-26	4-13	6-8	6	5	2	0	30
Armando Bacot	Forward	34	6-10	0-0	6-8	12	0	2	1	18
Harrison Ingram	Forward	34	3-11	3-9	1-2	3	1	1	0	10
Cormac Ryan	Guard	34	2-7	1-5	3-3	1	1	0	0	8
Elliot Cadeau	G	29	2-8	0-1	0-0	4	8	1	0	4
Seth Trimble	G	16	0-3	0-2	2-2	1	1	0	0	2
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	6	0	0	1	2
Jalen Washington	F	6	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

73.9Possessions73.9

113.7Offensive Efficiency102.8

102.8Defensive Efficiency113.7

10.8Net Efficiency-10.8

60.8%Effective FG%43.3%

64.8%True Shooting %48.8%

13.7%Turnover Rate10.7%

56.9%Free Throw Rate34.3%

27.5%3-Point Rate44.8%

1.30Assist / Turnover2.13

Game Summary

NC State won by 8 points. The game played at approximately 73.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.