Mississippi State

13-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

6.2%Mississippi State

93.8%Auburn

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAuburn -17.3

PROJECTED TOTAL165.4

MODEL MONEYLINEAuburn -1513

Auburn

21-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMississippi State 74

Projected Total165.4

Projected ScoreAuburn 91

Team Comparison

Mississippi StateMetricAuburn

44.6MMH Power Index64.4

107.4Offensive Efficiency118.8

113.2Defensive Efficiency113.0

-5.8Net Efficiency5.8

5.0Strength of Schedule7.5

-17.5Last 10 Net Efficiency8.0

72.3Tempo69.8

51.6%Effective FG%53.1%

16.1%Turnover Rate14.5%

29.8%Offensive Rebound %36.5%

30.9%Free Throw Rate43.8%

-4.2Average Margin4.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Auburn HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY93.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

11–0

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAuburn holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (64.4–44.6), offensive efficiency (118.8–107.4), defensive efficiency (113.0–113.2), net efficiency (5.8–-5.8).

Final

Mississippi State

66—73

Auburn

Auburn by 7 • 66.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Mississippi StateTEAM STATAuburn

23-56FG25-50

41.1%FG%50.0%

3-153PT6-19

20.0%3PT%31.6%

17-27FT17-22

63.0%FT%77.3%

37Rebounds28

17Offensive Rebounds8

7Assists15

14Turnovers15

11Steals5

3Blocks8

19Fouls20

Player Box Score

Mississippi State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Josh Hubbard	G	35	6-17	1-8	7-8	0	1	2	1	20
D.J. Jeffries	Forward	30	5-8	1-2	1-3	6	3	3	0	12
Tolu Smith	Forward	33	3-8	0-0	4-8	10	0	0	1	10
Shakeel Moore	Guard	26	3-5	1-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	7
Shawn Jones Jr.	G	12	3-3	0-0	1-2	2	0	2	0	7
Dashawn Davis	Guard	20	1-5	0-1	2-3	2	0	2	0	4
Cameron Matthews	Forward	31	1-7	0-1	1-1	5	3	2	0	3
Jimmy Bell Jr.	Forward	7	1-2	0-0	1-2	3	0	0	1	3
KeShawn Murphy	F	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Auburn

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chad Baker-Mazara	G	22	4-8	1-2	5-6	3	1	2	0	14
Jaylin Williams	Forward	31	4-7	1-3	4-4	4	4	0	2	13
Denver Jones	Guard	28	5-10	1-4	2-3	4	0	0	0	13
Johni Broome	Forward	23	4-8	1-3	1-2	3	2	0	3	10
Tre Donaldson	G	22	3-7	1-2	3-4	1	0	0	0	10
Chris Moore	Forward	18	2-2	1-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	5
Dylan Cardwell	Center	15	2-2	0-0	0-0	3	2	1	3	4
K.D. Johnson	Guard	12	1-3	0-2	2-3	1	0	0	0	4
Aden Holloway	G	18	0-3	0-2	0-0	1	6	2	0	0
Chaney Johnson	Forward	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.7Possessions66.7

99.0Offensive Efficiency109.4

109.4Defensive Efficiency99.0

-10.5Net Efficiency10.5

43.8%Effective FG%56.0%

47.9%True Shooting %60.4%

21.3%Turnover Rate22.2%

48.2%Free Throw Rate44.0%

26.8%3-Point Rate38.0%

0.50Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Auburn won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 66.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, True Shooting %, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.