Illinois

28-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

39.1%Illinois

60.9%Iowa State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIowa State -4.2

PROJECTED TOTAL151.5

MODEL MONEYLINEIowa State -156

Iowa State

28-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois 74

Projected Total151.5

Projected ScoreIowa State 78

Team Comparison

IllinoisMetricIowa State

76.5MMH Power Index75.9

125.0Offensive Efficiency119.3

103.3Defensive Efficiency96.0

21.7Net Efficiency23.3

6.7Strength of Schedule4.9

12.7Last 10 Net Efficiency17.5

66.5Tempo68.4

54.8%Effective FG%56.1%

13.1%Turnover Rate15.0%

39.3%Offensive Rebound %35.5%

33.8%Free Throw Rate35.2%

14.5Average Margin15.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Iowa State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY60.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIowa State holds the advantage in defensive efficiency (96.0–103.3), net efficiency (23.3–21.7), recent form (17.5–12.7), shooting efficiency (56.1–54.8).

Illinois COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (76.5–75.9), offensive efficiency (125.0–119.3), strength of schedule (6.7–4.9).

Final

Illinois

72—69

Iowa State

Illinois by 3 • 69.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

IllinoisTEAM STATIowa State

24-57FG23-58

42.1%FG%39.7%

9-293PT6-13

31.0%3PT%46.2%

15-29FT17-21

51.7%FT%81.0%

41Rebounds37

12Offensive Rebounds8

16Assists9

12Turnovers9

8Steals11

2Blocks3

18Fouls23

Player Box Score

Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Terrence Shannon Jr.	Not Available	30	10-19	4-10	5-10	5	2	3	0	29
Coleman Hawkins	Guard	36	4-8	2-5	2-4	6	3	2	0	12
Luke Goode	Forward	23	2-5	2-5	2-2	2	0	1	0	8
Marcus Domask	Forward	38	2-11	0-4	3-3	6	5	0	0	7
Dain Dainja	Forward	14	3-6	0-0	1-4	6	1	2	2	7
Quincy Guerrier	Forward	22	1-4	1-3	2-4	5	1	0	0	5
Ty Rodgers	G	24	2-2	0-0	0-2	6	2	0	0	4
Justin Harmon	Guard	7	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	2	0	0	0
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn	G	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Iowa State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Curtis Jones	Guard	28	7-18	4-7	8-8	4	2	1	0	26
Keshon Gilbert	Guard	38	5-13	1-2	3-5	4	2	5	0	14
Tre King	Forward	27	5-8	0-0	2-2	7	0	1	0	12
Tamin Lipsey	G	36	3-9	1-3	1-2	4	4	3	0	8
Demarion Watson	G	14	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Milan Momcilovic	F	22	0-4	0-1	1-2	2	0	0	1	1
Hason Ward	Forward	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	2	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.9Possessions69.9

103.0Offensive Efficiency98.7

98.7Defensive Efficiency103.0

4.3Net Efficiency-4.3

50.0%Effective FG%44.8%

50.9%True Shooting %50.8%

17.0%Turnover Rate13.0%

50.9%Free Throw Rate36.2%

50.9%3-Point Rate22.4%

1.33Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Illinois won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 69.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.