NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

5.1%NC State

94.9%Duke

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -19.1

PROJECTED TOTAL154.8

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -1861

Duke

35-3

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 68

Projected Total154.8

Projected ScoreDuke 87

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricDuke

60.1MMH Power Index81.7

118.4Offensive Efficiency122.2

108.6Defensive Efficiency95.2

9.8Net Efficiency27.0

6.4Strength of Schedule7.8

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency18.7

70.2Tempo66.8

55.1%Effective FG%56.9%

13.1%Turnover Rate15.9%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %38.2%

35.7%Free Throw Rate39.0%

6.9Average Margin18.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY94.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–60.1), offensive efficiency (122.2–118.4), defensive efficiency (95.2–108.6), net efficiency (27.0–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHball security (13.1–15.9).

Final

NC State

76—64

Duke

NC State by 12 • 68.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATDuke

28-60FG19-59

46.7%FG%32.2%

3-133PT5-20

23.1%3PT%25.0%

17-23FT21-26

73.9%FT%80.8%

39Rebounds41

8Offensive Rebounds12

16Assists11

5Turnovers9

4Steals4

6Blocks5

17Fouls23

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
DJ Burns	Forward	29	13-19	0-0	3-4	4	3	0	2	29
DJ Horne	Guard	38	7-16	2-6	4-5	4	3	0	0	20
Casey Morsell	Guard	31	2-6	0-0	4-4	2	2	1	0	8
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	26	2-5	0-0	3-4	5	0	1	3	7
Michael O'Connell	Guard	39	2-7	1-4	1-3	11	6	2	0	6
Mohamed Diarra	Forward	23	1-6	0-3	1-2	7	1	0	0	3
Jayden Taylor	Guard	14	1-1	0-0	1-1	2	1	0	1	3

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jared McCain	Guard	40	8-20	5-11	11-11	6	1	1	1	32
Jeremy Roach	Guard	38	5-13	0-1	3-6	3	3	1	1	13
Kyle Filipowski	Forward	30	3-12	0-3	5-5	9	1	1	0	11
Mark Mitchell	G	29	2-3	0-0	2-4	4	1	0	1	6
Sean Stewart	F	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	2	2
Tyrese Proctor	Guard	30	0-9	0-5	0-0	4	4	0	0	0
Jaylen Blakes	Guard	12	0-1	0-0	0-0	3	1	1	0	0
Ryan Young	Center	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.2Possessions68.2

111.4Offensive Efficiency93.8

93.8Defensive Efficiency111.4

17.6Net Efficiency-17.6

49.2%Effective FG%36.4%

53.6%True Shooting %44.8%

7.4%Turnover Rate13.2%

38.3%Free Throw Rate44.1%

21.7%3-Point Rate33.9%

3.20Assist / Turnover1.22

Game Summary

NC State won by 12 points. The game played at approximately 68.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.