Bowling Green

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

30.1%Bowling Green

69.9%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -4.7

PROJECTED TOTAL160.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -232

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBowling Green 78

Projected Total160.0

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Team Comparison

Bowling GreenMetricArkansas State

54.7MMH Power Index57.7

112.6Offensive Efficiency113.1

99.1Defensive Efficiency105.3

13.5Net Efficiency7.8

-4.7Strength of Schedule-1.0

1.4Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

72.2Tempo73.3

53.4%Effective FG%52.7%

15.9%Turnover Rate19.4%

29.2%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

38.7%Free Throw Rate39.6%

9.8Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY69.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.7), offensive efficiency (113.1–112.6), strength of schedule (-1.0–-4.7), recent form (15.2–1.4).

Bowling Green COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (99.1–105.3), net efficiency (13.5–7.8), shooting efficiency (53.4–52.7).

Final

Bowling Green

54—91

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 37 • 75.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Bowling GreenTEAM STATArkansas State

18-59FG33-64

31.0%FG%52.0%

2-243PT13-31

8.0%3PT%42.0%

16-22FT12-21

73.0%FT%57.0%

29Rebounds45

9Offensive Rebounds14

8Assists25

17Turnovers13

10Steals11

2Blocks3

16Fouls18

Player Box Score

Bowling Green

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Javontae Campbell	G	38	4-14	0-3	5-8	6	4	6	0	13
Josiah Shackelford	G	31	4-12	0-5	5-7	3	1	0	0	13
Sam Towns	F	34	4-12	1-5	1-1	6	0	1	0	10
Javon Ruffin	G	15	3-4	1-2	2-3	3	0	0	0	9
Troy Glover II	F	25	2-2	0-0	1-1	4	0	2	2	5
Justin Thomas	G	22	0-4	0-2	2-2	2	1	0	0	2
Makhi Leach	G	7	1-2	0-1	0-0	2	2	0	0	2
Mayar Wol	F	12	0-6	0-5	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Aiden Goins	F	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Camden Karel	F	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Jason Kimbrough Jr.	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Christian Harmon	G	25	6-10	6-10	0-0	4	3	1	0	18
TJ Caldwell	G	19	5-8	3-5	1-2	5	2	1	0	14
Aly Tounkara	F	21	5-6	0-0	1-1	10	0	1	3	11
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	20	3-6	0-1	4-5	4	0	0	0	10
Jalen Hampton	G	20	4-7	1-2	0-0	8	1	1	0	9
Matt Hayman	G	15	3-10	3-9	0-0	2	1	1	0	9
Chudi Dioramma	F	19	3-6	0-0	2-5	6	4	1	0	8
Chandler Jackson	G	31	2-5	0-0	1-2	0	8	4	0	5
Joey Chammaa	G	19	1-3	0-2	3-4	4	5	0	0	5
Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	5	1-3	0-2	0-2	1	0	0	0	2
Royal Blue Smith	G	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

75.3Possessions75.3

71.7Offensive Efficiency120.8

120.8Defensive Efficiency71.7

-49.1Net Efficiency49.1

32.2%Effective FG%61.7%

38.9%True Shooting %61.5%

21.9%Turnover Rate17.8%

37.3%Free Throw Rate32.8%

40.7%3-Point Rate48.4%

0.47Assist / Turnover1.92

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 37 points. The game played at approximately 75.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.